The African Democratic Congress (ADC) is currently experiencing a period of significant internal transformation, characterized by ongoing leadership disputes, ambitious electoral goals, and a dynamic relationship with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Recent developments underscore both the party's strategic efforts to reposition itself as a formidable opposition force and the deep-seated challenges that threaten its cohesion in anticipation of the 2027 general elections.

There have been conflicting reports regarding INEC's involvement with ADC's internal structures. Initially, the ADC's national publicity secretary, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi, refuted a widely circulated statement claiming INEC had validated a list of state party chairmen, labeling it as “fake news.” He clarified that INEC only acknowledges submissions made through due process by the party, and no such comprehensive list had been confirmed. However, subsequent reports confirmed INEC’s recognition of former Senate President David Mark and former Minister Rauf Aregbesola as the new national leaders of the ADC. This acknowledgment is viewed by the party as a “pivotal moment” and a “breakthrough,” enabling it to advance critical activities such as membership registration and revalidation, which were previously stalled by leadership wrangles.

David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola assumed their roles as interim National Chairman and interim Secretary, respectively, last July, following the resignation of the immediate past National Chairman, Ralph Nwosu, at a ceremony in Abuja. National Secretary Rauf Aregbesola has publicly declared the ADC's intention to unseat President Bola Tinubu and seize control of Lagos State in the 2027 general elections. Speaking at an event celebrating the 25th anniversary of the Conscience Forum, which saw its leader, Hon. Moshood Salvador, and an estimated 400,000 members transition from the Labour Party to the ADC, Aregbesola proposed an “operation ten over ten” strategy to achieve these electoral objectives, expressing strong confidence in the party's potential to reach Aso Rock Villa.

Despite the optimism from the new leadership, the ADC is grappling with profound internal divisions. Dumebi Kachikwu, the party’s 2023 presidential candidate, has openly criticized the leadership change, describing it as a “takeover” by “expired politicians,” a sentiment reportedly shared by several state chairmen. A faction of aggrieved members, led by former Deputy National Chairman Nafiu Bala Gombe, initiated legal proceedings to challenge the new leadership. While initial media reports erroneously suggested a court injunction had been issued to restrain Mark and Aregbesola, Malam Bolaji Abdullahi clarified that the Federal High Court in Abuja *refused* the ex-parte application seeking to halt their operations. Instead, the court directed the defendants to appear and “show cause,” confirming no restraining order was issued. Abdullahi attributed these misleading reports to “agents of destabilization” aiming to sow confusion. This ongoing legal contestation highlights the significant factional infighting within the party.

Malam Bolaji Abdullahi asserts that the ADC has evolved from a “fringe” party into “the only confidential opposition party” in Nigeria, evidenced by an influx of politicians from both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). The party’s strategy for 2027 aims to emulate the APC's 2015 success by forging a broad, multi-regional coalition featuring influential figures. However, political scientists like Professor Bolaji Omitola of Osun State University express skepticism. He argues that unlike the APC, which comprised strong blocs with a unified ‘change’ mantra, the ADC's coalition appears to be merely a “collection of individuals with varying ambitions,” lacking a true ideological foundation. Omitola also pointed out the absence of extensive state-level structures, particularly in the South-South and South-East, which could reduce its national ambition to an “Abuja coalition” rather than a genuine mass movement.

The 2023 elections underscored the significant electoral power of “Gen Z” voters, who often prioritize candidates that resonate with them over traditional party affiliations. A critical challenge for the ADC will be to bridge the generational gap between its “old guard” veteran leadership and this digitally-native electorate, requiring a unifying figure capable of inspiring and mobilizing this demographic. Concurrently, the Lagos State chapter of the APC has strongly denounced Rauf Aregbesola's pronouncements. Its spokesperson, Hon. Seye Oladejo, dismissed Aregbesola’s claims as a “desperate bid for relevance” and “political suicide,” accusing him of attempting to undermine the very political platform that facilitated his rise.

As the ADC navigates these intricate dynamics, its capacity to unify diverse interests, resolve internal conflicts, and effectively engage with a new generation of voters will be paramount. While INEC’s acknowledgment provides the Mark-Aregbesola leadership with a formal standing, the party’s journey to becoming a credible contender in 2027 is fraught with substantial internal and external obstacles. Failure to overcome these challenges could relegate the ADC to another fleeting coalition in Nigeria’s complex political landscape.