The 2026 NBA draft picture is rapidly coming into focus following the early-entry deadline and with the draft lottery less than two weeks away. This draft is anticipated to be particularly consequential due to an unusual amount of high-impact talent at the top and many teams having significant stakes tied to the lottery results. ESPN Analytics has unveiled a 2026 NBA draft lottery simulator to help fans engage with this pivotal event, which also provides real-time odds calculations and various simulation modes.

The ESPN NBA draft lottery simulator offers a comprehensive experience for users to model the 14-team field and play out potential lottery scenarios. It mirrors the real-life broadcast by revealing teams in the same order, providing notes after each reveal to explain the implications for the remaining field. The simulator dynamically recalculates odds, showing the probability of teams securing the No. 1 pick, jumping into the top four, and being selected at the next pick. Additionally, a "user picks" mode allows viewers to choose teams for each spot, testing specific scenarios. This tool will be updated after the final order is set on May 10, complementing ESPN's existing mock draft simulator.

The real-life 2026 NBA draft lottery is scheduled for Sunday, May 10, at 3 p.m. ET, and will be broadcast on ABC and the ESPN App. Fourteen teams that did not qualify for the playoffs are eligible for the lottery, though some have traded their picks. The odds for securing the No. 1 pick, based on regular season standings, are as follows: Washington Wizards (14%), Indiana Pacers (14%), Brooklyn Nets (14%), Utah Jazz (11.5%), Sacramento Kings (11.5%), Memphis Grizzlies (8.0%), Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans Pelicans, 6.8%), Dallas Mavericks (6.7%), Chicago Bulls (4.5%), Milwaukee Bucks (3%), Golden State Warriors (2%), Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers, 1.5%), Miami Heat (1%), and Charlotte Hornets (0.5%).

Several pick conveyances add complexity to the lottery. The Atlanta Hawks will receive the better of the picks belonging to the Bucks and Pelicans, with Milwaukee taking the lesser. The Oklahoma City Thunder are set to receive the Clippers' pick regardless of the lottery outcome. However, the Clippers could still benefit if the Indiana Pacers' pick, which is top-four protected, does not land within the top four, in which case it would convey to Los Angeles.

Regarding the draft class itself, AJ Dybantsa has emerged as the front-runner for the No. 1 overall pick, with Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, and Caleb Wilson also considered top prospects. The early-entry list for this class is notably smaller, with only 71 players declaring, a significant decrease from 106 in 2025 and the fewest in over 20 years. This reduction in declarations, particularly outside the lottery, is attributed to the impact of Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL) deals, which have allowed NCAA Division I programs to retain talent. Despite this, the first-round picture remains largely stable, as only three projected first-rounders—Thomas Haugh, Braylon Mullins, and Motiejus Krivas—opted against entering. The true depth of the class will become clearer as 16 of the 20 prospects projected in the 15-35 range still have the option to return to college.

The NBA will host the lottery and combine in Chicago on May 10, officially commencing the pre-draft cycle. The 2026 NBA Draft will span two days, with Round 1 airing on ABC, ESPN, and the ESPN App on Tuesday, June 23, and Round 2 airing on ESPN and the ESPN App on Wednesday, June 24, both at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Based on a default lottery order mock draft, here are the projections for the first round, informed by conversations with NBA executives and scouts, along with player evaluations:

1. Washington Wizards: AJ Dybantsa (SF, BYU Freshman) - Averaging 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, Dybantsa is broadly viewed as the probable No. 1 choice due to elite physical traits, scoring upside, and defensive potential. He would complement Trae Young and Anthony Davis, aligning with the Wizards' shift towards competition.

2. Indiana Pacers: Darryn Peterson (PG/SG, Kansas Freshman) - With 20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists, Peterson remains a strong No. 1 candidate despite a "strange season" impacted by health issues. Positive feedback on his work ethic makes his medical evaluation at the combine crucial. The Pacers have a 52.1% chance to keep their top-four protected pick, which would significantly alter their franchise path.

3. Brooklyn Nets: Cameron Boozer (PF/C, Duke Freshman) - Boozer, who averaged 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists, lived up to expectations, earning player of the year awards. He's seen as a foundational player, a safe choice for the Nets who are seeking a young franchise anchor given their 2027 pick is owed to Houston.

4. Utah Jazz: Caleb Wilson (PF/C, North Carolina Freshman) - Despite hand injuries, Wilson (19.8 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists) maintains a high standing on draft boards. His athletic gifts will be showcased in pre-draft workouts, and he's seen as a long-term centerpiece, especially with the Jazz's 2027 pick not under their control.

5. Sacramento Kings: Darius Acuff Jr. (PG, Arkansas Freshman) - Acuff Jr. (23.5 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.4 assists) has seen his stock rise, positioning him for a top-five leap. He's a highly skilled and polished point guard, critical for the Kings who need a younger player to lead their next team iteration.

6. Memphis Grizzlies: Keaton Wagler (PG/SG, Illinois Freshman) - Wagler (17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, 4.2 assists) had a remarkable rise, leading Illinois to the Final Four. His 6-foot-6 frame, versatility at both guard positions, and rapid improvement point to major long-term upside for the Grizzlies, who secured a 9% chance at No. 1.

7. Atlanta Hawks (via New Orleans): Kingston Flemings (PG, Houston Freshman) - Flemings (16.1 points, 4.1 rebounds, 5.2 assists) is an explosive lead playmaker and defender. His jump shot progression will be key, and he represents a good developmental fit for the Hawks, who lack a long-term point guard.

8. Dallas Mavericks: Mikel Brown Jr. (PG, Louisville Freshman) - Brown (18.2 points, 3.3 rebounds, 4.7 assists) faced a back injury, making the pre-draft process crucial for showcasing his offensive talent. He's seen as having the highest upside among top guards, and the Mavericks need a running mate for Cooper Flagg.

9. Chicago Bulls: Brayden Burries (SG, Arizona Freshman) - Burries (16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists) is a steady two-way contributor with potential as an on-ball playmaker. He's a solid fit for the Bulls, who are targeting the best available talent to improve their perimeter next to Josh Giddey and Matas Buzelis.

10. Milwaukee Bucks: Nate Ament (SF/PF, Tennessee Freshman) - Ament (16.7 points, 6.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists) is a tall skill player with shotmaking upside. Despite a slight stock slip, he offers intrigue for the Bucks, who need backcourt help but should prioritize best available given the uncertainty around Giannis Antetokounmpo.

11. Golden State Warriors: Karim Lopez (SF/PF, New Zealand Breakers) - Lopez (11.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.0 assists) is the top overseas prospect. His experience could help him slot in early, aligning with the Warriors' need to balance short- and long-term roster goals.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (via LA Clippers): Yaxel Lendeborg (SF/PF, Michigan Senior) - Lendeborg (15.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists) benefited from Michigan's title run, showcasing versatility and perimeter shooting. His skill set is additive for winning teams, offering an immediate addition to the Thunder's frontcourt.

13. Miami Heat: Labaron Philon Jr. (PG/SG, Alabama Sophomore) - Philon (22.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists) improved by returning to school, making him a late lottery option for shot creation. He could provide a spark off the bench for the Heat, who are picking in the lottery for the first time since 2019.

14. Charlotte Hornets: Aday Mara (C, Michigan Junior) - Mara (12.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists) is the most gifted center in the draft, with unique skill at 7-3. His passing and processing abilities are highlights, and he offers needed size for the Hornets' frontcourt.

The remainder of the first round includes: 15. Jayden Quaintance (C, Kentucky Sophomore) to Chicago Bulls (via Portland); 16. Hannes Steinbach (PF/C, Washington Freshman) to Memphis Grizzlies (via Orlando); 17. Chris Cenac Jr. (PF/C, Houston Freshman) to Oklahoma City Thunder (via Philadelphia); 18. Cameron Carr (SG, Baylor Sophomore) to Charlotte Hornets (via Phoenix); 19. Christian Anderson (PG, Texas Tech Sophomore) to Toronto Raptors; 20. Morez Johnson Jr. (PF/C, Michigan Sophomore) to San Antonio Spurs (via Atlanta); 21. Bennett Stirtz (PG, Iowa Senior) to Detroit Pistons (via Minnesota); 22. Allen Graves (PF, Santa Clara Freshman) to Philadelphia 76ers (via Houston); 23. Isaiah Evans (SG, Duke Sophomore) to Atlanta Hawks (via Cleveland); 24. Koa Peat (PF/C, Arizona Freshman) to New York Knicks; 25. Henri Veesaar (C, North Carolina Junior) to Los Angeles Lakers; 26. Dailyn Swain (SG/SF, Texas Junior) to Denver Nuggets; 27. Amari Allen (SF/PF, Alabama Freshman) to Boston Celtics; 28. Ebuka Okorie (PG, Stanford Freshman) to Minnesota Timberwolves (via Detroit); 29. Meleek Thomas (PG/SG, Arkansas Freshman) to Cleveland Cavaliers (via San Antonio); 30. Joshua Jefferson (SF/PF, Iowa State Senior) to Dallas Mavericks (via Oklahoma City).

The second round projections are: 31. Alex Karaban (SF/PF, UConn Senior) to New York Knicks (via Washington); 32. Tyler Tanner (PG/SG, Vanderbilt Sophomore) to Memphis Grizzlies (via Indiana); 33. Juke Harris (SG, Wake Forest Sophomore) to Brooklyn Nets; 34. Zuby Ejiofor (PF/C, St. John's Senior) to Sacramento Kings; 35. Tounde Yessoufou (SF, Baylor Freshman) to San Antonio Spurs (via Utah); 36. Luigi Suigo (C, Mega Basket, Serbia) to LA Clippers (via Memphis); 37. Milan Momcilovic (PF, Iowa State Junior) to Oklahoma City Thunder (via Dallas); 38. Sergio de Larrea (PG/SG, Valencia, Spain) to Chicago Bulls (via New Orleans); 39. Ryan Conwell (SG, Louisville Senior) to Houston Rockets (via Chicago); 40. Braden Smith (PG, Purdue Senior) to Boston Celtics (via Milwaukee); 41. Tarris Reed Jr. (PF/C, UConn Senior) to Miami Heat (via Golden State); 42. Matt Able (SF, NC State Freshman) to San Antonio Spurs (via Portland); 43. Malachi Moreno (C, Kentucky Freshman) to Brooklyn Nets (via LA Clippers); 44. Baba Miller (PF/C, Cincinnati Senior) to San Antonio Spurs (via Miami); 45. Richie Saunders (SG/SF, BYU Senior) to Sacramento Kings (via Charlotte); 46. Flory Bidunga (C, Kansas Sophomore) to Orlando Magic; 47. Jaden Bradley (PG/SG, Arizona Senior) to Phoenix Suns (via Philadelphia); 48. Trevon Brazile (PF/C, Arkansas Senior) to Dallas Mavericks (via Phoenix); 49. Rueben Chinyelu (C, Florida Junior) to Denver Nuggets (via Atlanta); 50. Ugonna Onyenso (C, Virginia Senior) to Toronto Raptors; 51. Billy Richmond III (SG/SF, Arkansas Sophomore) to Washington Wizards (via Minnesota); 52. Kylan Boswell (PG/SG, Illinois Senior) to LA Clippers (via Cleveland); 53. Bruce Thornton (PG/SG, Ohio State Senior) to Houston Rockets; 54. Andrej Stojakovic (SG/SF, Illinois Junior) to Golden State Warriors (via Los Angeles); 55. Emanuel Sharp (SG, Houston Senior) to New York Knicks; 56. Tyler Bilodeau (F, UCLA Senior) to Chicago Bulls (via Denver); 57. Ja'Kobi Gillespie (PG, Tennessee Senior) to Atlanta Hawks (via Boston); 58. Milos Uzan (PG, Houston Senior) to Minnesota Timberwolves (via San Antonio); 59. Tamin Lipsey (PG, Iowa State Senior) to New Orleans Pelicans (via Detroit); 60. Felix Okpara (C, Tennessee Senior) to Washington Wizards (via Oklahoma City).