The recent Kasama mayoral by-election in Zambia delivered a significant victory for the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND), overturning a seat previously held by the opposition. This outcome is attributed to a confluence of factors, primarily the severe fragmentation of the opposition vote, a notable drop in voter turnout, and UPND's strengthened ground game since the 2021 general elections. The numbers reveal a stark picture: in the 2026 by-election, UPND candidate Bywell Simposya secured 17,647 votes, while the Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) candidate polled 14,303 votes, out of a total of 42,929 votes cast from 138,286 registered voters. This contrasted sharply with the 2021 election where the Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Theresa Kolala won with 57,613 votes (66.45%), and Bywell Simposya garnered 25,011 votes (28.85%) from 86,680 total votes.

Despite the overall decline in raw vote numbers due to significantly lower turnout, UPND's performance in Kasama shows a crucial gain in political share, rising from approximately 29 percent in 2021 to about 41 percent of ballots cast in the by-election. This growth in an area often considered an opposition stronghold signals UPND's increasing rural and peri-urban penetration. Conversely, the opposition's collective vote far outstripped UPND's. Adding the FDD's 14,303, Citizens First's 4,405, United Progressive People's Party's 2,988, Socialist Party's 2,211, and NFP's 472, the combined non-UPND tally reached 24,379. This demonstrates that a united opposition front would likely have carried the day, highlighting fragmentation as a critical impediment to their success.

The opposition's strategic missteps extend beyond disunity. Campaigns relying on grievance mobilization, such as Chishimba Kambwili's attempts to link funeral attendance to voting instructions and politicize regional grievances, failed to sway voters effectively. Furthermore, the persistent accusation of