Zambia's Hichilema Extends Commanding Lead with 70 Constituencies Counted in Tense Election

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has released its third consolidated presidential election tally, indicating that UPND candidate Hakainde Hichilema has taken a significant lead. As of the announcement made at the National Totalling Centre on Sunday, results from 70 out of 226 constituencies have been counted, showing Mr. Hichilema polling 626,434 votes against NRPUP candidate Brian Mundubile's 505,795 votes. This places Hichilema with a substantial lead of 120,639 votes.

The latest batch of 21 constituencies significantly expanded Hichilema's advantage. While at 49 constituencies, Hichilema held a lead of 87,427 votes (438,708 vs. 351,281), the addition of these 21 constituencies saw Hichilema gain approximately 187,726 votes and Mundubile 154,514 votes, translating to a net gain of 33,212 votes for Hichilema in this specific batch. This demonstrates that the new results not only preserved but expanded the incumbent's lead.

The geographical distribution of votes reveals distinct patterns. Mundubile continues to consolidate support in the 'old PF belt,' securing notable victories in constituencies such as Mansa West (13,993 vs. Hichilema’s 3,302), Mpanda in Northern Province (11,930 vs. 2,419), Chilinda in Muchinga (13,328 vs. 4,550), and Lumezi North in Eastern Province (12,045 vs. 3,722). These substantial victories reinforce earlier trends seen in areas like Kasama Central and Chinsali Central.

However, Hichilema's strategy relies on the sheer size of his victories elsewhere. In his strongholds, constituencies like Monze Central delivered 21,509 votes against Mundubile’s 968, Itezhi-tezhi West returned 14,707 against 332, Mwandi in Western Province produced 12,047 against 411, and Zambezi West in North-Western Province gave Hichilema 6,250 against only 25. These four constituencies alone provided Hichilema with a combined advantage of over 52,700 votes, significantly counterbalancing Mundubile's regional successes.

Central Province is emerging as a crucial battleground, not showing complete domination but adding to Hichilema's cushion. For instance, Keembe East saw Hichilema win with 20,706 votes against Mundubile’s 4,015, a margin of 16,691 votes. While Nkundalila (4,142 to 2,656 for Hichilema) and Lukusashi (3,885 to 3,480 for Hichilema) were tighter, any sizeable advantage here strengthens Hichilema's overall position. Lusaka Province also remains competitive; Hichilema won Kafue East (13,922 to 8,145), Chilanga South (13,605 to 7,710), and Kafue West (15,096 to 11,508), while Mundubile edged Chongwe West (16,367 to 15,604). Hichilema's accumulation of votes in the capital's peripheral areas complicates Mundubile's path.

The analysis emphasizes that winning the most constituencies does not determine Zambia's presidency; rather, the national cumulative vote margin is paramount. Mundubile's path is increasingly mathematical, requiring larger margins from his strongholds, especially populous Copperbelt constituencies and the remaining northern and eastern votes, while simultaneously limiting Hichilema's gains in competitive territories. Hichilema, conversely, can afford to lose numerous constituencies as long as he continues to secure overwhelming victories in his strongest regions and competitive shares elsewhere.

As of the latest update, only 70 of 226 constituencies, approximately 31% of the total, have been tallied. The remaining 156 constituencies are politically diverse, with significant sections of the Copperbelt, Lusaka, Eastern, and northern circuits still crucial for Mundubile, while further constituencies from Southern, Western, and North-Western provinces could yield large Hichilema margins. The sequence of constituency announcements can therefore cause sharp fluctuations in the national lead.

Besides the top two contenders, other candidates have recorded significantly lower totals. Citizens First’s Harry Kalaba received 6,469 votes, Zambia Must Prosper’s Kelvin Bwalya polled 5,565 votes, and Socialist Party’s Dr. Fred Mmembe garnered 3,747 votes. Independent candidate Given Katuta secured 2,500 votes, Movement for Economic Emancipation (MEE’s) Given Chansa had 2,077 votes, and Organised People’s Party (OPP’s) Brian Mushimba polled 1,589 votes. Leaders Movement (LM’s) Richard Silumbe received 993 votes, Democratic Union’s Ackim Njovu and Zambia Wake Up Party’s Howard Kunda both stood at 735 votes, New Focus Party’s Richwell Siamunene with 646 votes, and Christian Democratic Party’s Daniel Pule with 302 votes.

ECZ Chairperson Mwangala Zaloumis confirmed that tallying is ongoing and more results would be released in subsequent announcements. The commission has urged the public and political parties to maintain calm as the electoral process continues to unfold. This election underscores that the critical question is not merely who wins the most places, but who wins them by a sufficient number of votes, an arithmetic that currently favors Hichilema.