WPC Met Watch

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0674 (Issued at 533 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 )
MPD Selection

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0674...Corrected NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 533 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Corrected for Discussion Wording Areas affected...Southeast AZ...West-Central to Southwest NM Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 132116Z - 140230Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand in coverage going through the afternoon and early evening hours across west-central to southwest NM and southeast AZ. While isolated to scattered in coverage, flash flooding will be likely for the more sensitive dry washes and burn scar locations, including the Trout burn scar. DISCUSSION...Monsoonal moisture is gradually becoming better established across portions of the Southwest U.S., and this moisture along with favorable instability and some northeasterly shear will favor additional areas of scattered thunderstorms going through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening hours. PWs overall are near normal with values of 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the region, but SBCAPE values are on the order of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg which may tend to increase a bit further over the next few hours given strong diurnal heating. A belt of stronger northeasterly mid-level flow is promoting some effective bulk shear values of 20 to 30 kts, and this coupled with the instability and localized areas of orographic ascent/terrain enhancement is already yielding areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Over the next few hours, there may be some additional upscale growth and organization of the cells as they evolve down to the southwest across southwest NM and through southeast AZ. Rainfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches/hour will be possible with the stronger storms, and while they will be rather progressive, there may be some spotty 2+ inches totals where any cells tend to be more focused near areas of higher terrain. Flash flooding will be likely for the more sensitive dry washes where these thunderstorms organize, and there will be notable concerns for the more recent burn scar locations as well for impacts. Thus will include the Trout burn scar in southwest NM which is currently being impacted by heavy rainfall and was recently put under a Flash Flood Emergency. Orrison ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC... ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC... LAT...LON 34380816 34190757 33520733 32520754 31840810 31380877 31260996 31301119 31551153 31951147 32421077 32991027 33420993 33860945 34210887 

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Last Updated: 533 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025