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WPC MPD 418

Published 1 month ago3 minute read
WPC Met Watch
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0418 (Issued at 908 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 )
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Graphic for MPD #0418
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0418 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 908 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Areas affected...middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110107Z - 110600Z Summary...Flash flood potential from locally high rainfall rates of 2 to 3 in/hr will set up over portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX through ~06Z. Discussion...GOES East infrared satellite and area radar mosaic imagery showed an MCS advancing south and east across the middle Rio Grande into northern Coahuila. Outflow was observed to be primarily advancing southeastward into northern Mexico and down the Rio Grande. The progressive nature of the outflow, advancing ~30 kt over the past 1-2 hours across Val Verde County, was limiting the flash flood threat. However, short term rainfall rates within the line of 1 to 1.5 inches in 30 minutes have been reported at times since 22Z. Southeast of the ongoing convective system was the presence of a remnant, increasingly diffuse, outflow boundary that extended from near San Antonio Bay WNW across the South Texas Plains toward Del Rio. Some localized convective development along this boundary has been noted across southeastern Val Verde into western Kinney counties over the past 30-60 minutes. SPC mesoanalysis data from 00Z showed weak inhibition coupled with strong to extreme MLCAPE values of 3000 to 4000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, with lower CAPE values and modest to moderate inhibition to its north. The diurnal cycle along with the approach of an upper level shortwave over the western TX/Mexico border should support an increase in southerly 850 mb winds through 03Z, along the lower/middle Rio Grande Valley with recent RAP guidance supporting 20 to 30 kt. Increasing upper divergence and diffluence ahead of the upper trough and low level convergence ahead of the advancing MCS and increasing low level jet may encourage additional cell development in advance of the progressive leading edge of the MCS in the vicinity of the remnant surface boundary over southern TX. The high CAPE/moisture environment along with relatively weak deeper layer mean flow could support a few slow moving cells, to be followed by a quick inch or two with the expected advancing convective line. Localized flash flood potential could result for portions of the middle Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX as a result. Otto ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC... LAT...LON 30510048 30429988 30069896 29599843 29109845 28599874 28119929 27970002 28100037 29050089 29320124 29800147 30130134 30460093 
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Last Updated: 908 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
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