VanEck has released a comprehensive new report detailing its long-term capital market assumptions for Bitcoin (BTC), projecting significant growth over the coming decades and outlining its potential role within diversified institutional investment portfolios. Authored by VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel and Senior Analyst Patrick Bush, the report models Bitcoin reaching an impressive $2.9 million per coin by the year 2050 under a base-case scenario. This projection represents a substantial 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from current price levels. The underlying assumptions for this base case include Bitcoin capturing 5–10% of global trade and establishing itself as a reserve asset, making up 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.

The report also provides a spectrum of potential outcomes, accommodating varying market conditions. In a more conservative “bear” scenario, Bitcoin is anticipated to grow at a modest 2% per year, reaching approximately $130,000 per coin by 2050. Conversely, a highly optimistic “hyper-bitcoinization” scenario envisions BTC capturing 20% of global trade and 10% of domestic GDP, which could theoretically propel the asset to an extraordinary $53.4 million per coin by 2050, reflecting a robust 29% CAGR.

VanEck strongly emphasizes Bitcoin’s attributes as a strategic, low-correlation asset suitable for institutional portfolios. The firm recommends a 1–3% allocation for most diversified portfolios. For investors with a higher risk tolerance, historical analysis suggests that allocations of up to 20% have optimized returns. VanEck posits that Bitcoin’s function is evolving beyond mere speculation; it is becoming a viable reserve asset and a crucial hedge against monetary debasement, particularly pertinent given the high sovereign debt faced by developed markets. The report asserts that “The risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself.”

The research delves into Bitcoin’s volatility and market structure. Annualized BTC volatility is modeled between 40–70%, which is comparable to frontier equities or early-stage technology investments, though realized volatility recently hit multi-year lows near 27%. VanEck attributes a significant portion of Bitcoin’s short-term price fluctuations to futures leverage and derivatives, rather than fundamental adoption challenges. Furthermore, the report highlights Bitcoin’s historically low correlation to traditional assets such as stocks, bonds, and gold, alongside a long-term negative correlation to the U.S. dollar.

For tactical investors, VanEck tracks specific blockchain metrics, including the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP). As of December 31, 2025, Bitcoin’s RUP stood at 0.43, indicating a mid-cycle position and suggesting potential for further gains before a market peak. Futures funding rates remained moderate at 4.9%, well below the levels typically indicative of market tops. VanEck’s simulations on portfolio impact demonstrate that even small allocations to BTC can significantly enhance efficiency. In a traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolio, replacing 1–3% with Bitcoin led to an increased Sharpe Ratio, effectively capturing the asset’s “convex return” without introducing disproportionate risk. Their analysis concluded that a 3% allocation historically yielded the highest return per unit of risk. At the time of this report’s writing, Bitcoin was trading near $91,000.