The United States has declared its intention to designate the putative Venezuelan drug cartel, allegedly led by Nicolás Maduro, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). This announcement, made by Marco Rubio, targeted the already proscribed group known as the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns). The US Secretary of State noted that the group, headed by Maduro, has corrupted Venezuelan government institutions, is responsible for terrorist violence carried out with other designated FTOs, and is involved in trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe.

This move sparked excitement among hardline adversaries of Maduro, who interpreted it as a signal that Washington was preparing to intensify efforts to remove the South American leader from power. However, these hopes were quickly tempered by contradictory signals from former President Trump. Shortly after Rubio’s pronouncement, Trump hinted at potential negotiations with Maduro's representatives, stating, "We may be having some conversations with Maduro, and we’ll see how that turns out. They would like to talk."

During his previous term, Trump had initially pursued a different approach to relations with Caracas after returning to the White House in January. He directed his special envoy, Ric Grenell, to engage with Maduro and his top officials on matters such as deportation flights, US prisoners in Venezuela, and natural resources. However, in recent months, these talks appeared to have been sidelined as Venezuela hawks, including Rubio and Stephen Miller, reportedly gained influence over policy. Despite this, some communication channels were believed to have remained open.

Since August, the Trump administration has significantly increased pressure on Maduro’s regime. This included a series of naval operations in the Caribbean targeting alleged drug smuggling boats, representing the largest US naval deployment in the region since the 1989 invasion of Panama. The State Department also announced a $50 million reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, double the amount previously offered for Osama bin Laden. Further heightening tensions, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, arrived in the Caribbean, bringing the total number of US service personnel in the region to approximately 15,000.

Rubio reiterated that "Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government" as he announced that the Cartel de los Soles’ FTO designation would take effect on November 24th. Experts largely believe this campaign, while officially framed around halting drug trafficking and targeting groups like the Cartel of the Suns, is fundamentally designed to pressure Maduro to resign or encourage the Venezuelan military to depose him, under the implicit threat of military action.

However, many Venezuela specialists express skepticism about the Cartel de los Soles existing as a structured entity comparable to Mexican cartels like Sinaloa or Jalisco New Generation. Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based analyst for Crisis Group, described the “fictitious” cartel as “convenient shorthand” for Maduro’s control over the criminal underworld. Gunson explained that while there are undoubtedly military figures involved in drug trafficking, and the government grants them impunity to maintain loyalty, there is no formalized organization in which Maduro directly oversees and directs drug shipments. Gunson views the FTO designation threat as another incremental step to pressure Maduro to resign or face possible airstrikes, though he warns that continuous escalation without a clear outcome risks being perceived as a bluff, making Maduro less likely to take such threats seriously.