The 2026 general elections in Uganda are taking place amidst a deeply challenging political landscape, characterized by widespread repression and a palpable sense of defiance among the opposition. As supporters of opposition leader and presidential candidate for the National Unity Platform (NUP), Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, gathered for his party’s final campaign rally in Kampala on January 12, 2026, the mood was both defiant and bleak. President Yoweri Museveni, 81, who has led Uganda since 1986 and removed age and term limits from the constitution, is widely expected to extend his 40-year rule, seeking a seventh term. His continued dominance is attributed to his near-total control over the state and security apparatus, leading critics like UNAIDS director Winnie Byanyima, wife of opposition leader Kizza Besigye, to describe Uganda as a "military state" with only a "thin veneer" of democracy.

The electoral environment has been severely criticized as unsafe and unfair by various groups. Africa for Africa (AFA), a lobby group, warned that the Electoral Commission favors the ruling National Resistance Movement, pointing to the late release of the official voter register just 14 days before polling day, which undermined citizens' ability to verify their registration. The United Nations Human Rights Office also reported widespread repression, including the use of live ammunition to disperse peaceful protests, abductions of critics, and arbitrary detentions of opposition figures and activists. The Mayor of Kampala, Erias Lukwago, explicitly told a gathering that Ugandans are either "political prisoners or potential political prisoners."

The main opposition candidate, Bobi Wine, 43, has described his campaign as a "war," frequently appearing in public with a flak jacket due to past arrests and torture in military custody. The campaign has seen hundreds of opposition supporters arrested and at least one killed, with police claiming they are confronting "hooligans." Other significant opposition figures have also faced severe consequences; Kizza Besigye was reportedly kidnapped in Kenya in 2024 and secretly smuggled to a Ugandan military prison to face treason charges, while civic activist Sarah Bireete was detained in December 2025 on allegations of unlawful access to voters’ data. Authorities have further suppressed dissent by banning live broadcasts of "unlawful processions," detaining NUP supporters, and restricting accreditation for election observers and journalists, fueling fears of a tightly controlled political environment.

Jude Kagoro, a researcher at the University of Bremen, highlighted that most Ugandan police officers view it as their duty to support the incumbent power, often using brute force at opposition rallies without explicit orders. Museveni’s regime has also employed various strategies to infiltrate and divide opposition groups, including through a system informally known as "ghetto structures." Under this system, security officials recruit young people in opposition areas to "work for the police to disorganize opposition activities, and also to spy," a tactic refined after the government was caught by surprise by Wine’s rise ahead of the 2021 election. The high price people have to pay for engaging in political opposition has made it "way too dangerous" for a grassroots movement to thrive, leaving only a core group of supporters.

Further exacerbating concerns about the fairness and transparency of the elections, Uganda ordered a nationwide shutdown of public internet access and selected mobile services. The Uganda Communications Commission directed all licensed mobile network operators and internet service providers to suspend public internet access, the sale and registration of new SIM cards, and outbound data roaming. This suspension took effect Tuesday, January 13, 2026, at 6 p.m., ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections on Thursday, January 15, 2026. The commission, acting on a recommendation from the Inter-Agency Security Committee, stated the move aimed to curb misinformation, disinformation, electoral fraud, and prevent incitement to violence. The shutdown blocked non-essential public internet traffic, including social media platforms, web browsing, video streaming, personal email services, and messaging applications. However, limited access to essential services on non-mobile internet connections, such as healthcare systems at national referral hospitals, core banking systems, and Electoral Commission portals, was allowed for authorized personnel. This action mirrors a similar internet blackout during the January 2021 General Election. The regime's efforts to make people scared and discourage voter turnout reflect a concerted strategy to maintain power.