Benfica and Real Madrid are set to clash in a highly anticipated Champions League playoff first-leg encounter at the iconic Estádio da Luz. This match comes fresh off a dramatic league phase encounter where Benfica secured a stunning 4-2 victory over the Spanish giants, a result that saw Real Madrid miss out on a top-eight finish in the league standings.

Benfica's head coach, Jose Mourinho, has expressed caution despite his team's recent triumph over Real Madrid. Mourinho expects a much more complicated match this time, anticipating a strong reaction from a "wounded" Real Madrid side. "We know what we did to the kings of the Champions League… they are wounded," he stated. "And a wounded king is dangerous." The first leg will be hosted by Benfica on Tuesday, February 16th, at Estádio da Luz, with the return leg scheduled for the Santiago Bernabéu.

Both Iberian clubs enter this crucial tie in strong form. Jose Mourinho's Benfica has displayed remarkable resilience, winning four and drawing one of their last five matches across all competitions, including a recent 2-1 away victory against Santa Clara. Their formidable home record at Estádio da Luz will be a significant advantage. Real Madrid, under interim head coach Alvaro Arbeloa, has also found their stride, matching Benfica's recent run with four wins in their last five outings. However, Madrid has shown vulnerabilities on the road in European competitions, which Benfica will look to exploit.

Looking at their head-to-head record, Benfica's recent 4-2 win means they have now won three of their four encounters with Real Madrid. However, this was only Benfica's fourth victory in 26 matches against Liga teams, underlining a historical challenge. Conversely, the reverse fixture defeat was Real Madrid’s sole loss in their last ten Champions League matches against Portuguese opponents, indicating their usual dominance.

Team news reveals significant absences for Real Madrid. Jude Bellingham is a major absentee due to a hamstring injury, while Rodrygo is suspended for two UEFA matches following a red card. Raul Asencio is also suspended, and Eder Militao remains sidelined with a tendon issue. However, star forward Kylian Mbappe, who missed the 4-1 win over Real Sociedad, has been confirmed fit by Arbeloa and is expected to feature. For Benfica, Alexander Bah (cruciate ligament) has returned to training but is unlikely to start. Samuel Soares (muscle problem), Fredrik Aursnes, and Joao Veloso are all uncertain, while Richard Rios, despite returning to training, is not expected to play.

Potential starting lineups suggest a tactical battle. Benfica could line up with Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis. Real Madrid's probable XI includes Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler. Real Madrid is expected to approach this first leg with greater control and tactical discipline, particularly away from home, aiming to avenge their previous defeat which exposed defensive weaknesses.

Despite the lingering memory of the 4-2 defeat, Madrid’s superior goal difference and overall attacking quality suggest they remain a significant threat. The match is predicted to be a high-scoring affair, with betting tips suggesting over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, with Kylian Mbappe scoring anytime. The overall prediction leans towards a Real Madrid victory, with a suggested correct score of Benfica 1:3 Real Madrid.