Trump's NASDAQ Up 5.2% In First Half After Biden's 18% 2024 Pop
Nasdaq rose 5.2% in the first half of 2025 — a far cry from the first half of 2024’s 18% increase
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AFP via Getty ImagesIn the first half of 2025, stock market indices barely budged — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq inched up 5,2% as of June 27.
The first half of 2024 was much more profitable for investors as the S&P 500 rose 14% and the Nasdaq increased 18%.
In 2025, tariff concerns, slower economic growth, high market volatility and slower rate cuts also tamped down stock averages.
The market averages did relatively poorly in the first half of 2025 compared to the year before.
The DJIA was up 3.4% — compared to a 4% for the first half of 2024; the S&P 500 (+5.2%) vs. 14% in the first half of 2024; and Nasdaq (+5.2%) vs. 18% in the first half of 2024, according to Google Finance.
The lower growth of the Nasdaq in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024 is likely due to slower economic growth and more uncertainty, much higher volatility and a shift away from the U.S., and less aggressive rate cuts.
These stock-unfriendly conditions contrast sharply with last years’ generative AI frenzy, about which I wrote in Brain Rush, relatively strong corporate earnings, and investor expectations for rate cuts.
First Half 2025 Winners And Losers
Top performing S&P 500 stocks benefited from changes in government policy which in some cases included government contracts.
- (+67%). The aerospace parts provider’s stock increased with help from strong demand from the commercial and defense sectors, reported Yahoo! Finance.
The biggest S&P 500 losers in the first half suffered from a drop in consumer spending related to tariff increases and economic uncertainty along with government health care policy changes.
The three biggest losers include:
- stock price fell 49.2% in the first half of 2025 due largely to tariff uncertainty which contributed to the company’s failure to offer 2025 guidance during the first quarter earnings, wrote Investopedia.
- (-38.7%) suffered a drop in share price in the wake of a sharp increase in healthcare utilization and a reduced earnings per share forecast, according to TipRanks.
- (-35,3%). Moderna shares fell after a cut in its 2025 revenue forecast resulting from reduced demand for its Covid-19 vaccine and the loss of a government contract to develop a bird flu vaccine, noted Trefis.
Companies such as Palantir and Oracle that the Trump administration favors —both were co-sponsors of Trump’s military birthday parade, SFGate reports — could enjoy a continued rise in their stock prices.
Meanwhile companies vulnerable to tariffs and changing health care policies may continue to tank.
