Donald Trump announced on Saturday that a peace deal with Iran has been “largely negotiated” following extensive calls with a Pakistani mediator, various Gulf allies, and Israel. This development could potentially pave the way for an end to the conflict launched by the US and Israel in February. Trump indicated on his social media platform that “final aspects and details” of a “Memorandum of Understanding” are still under discussion and would be announced shortly. A significant aspect of the proposed deal is the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global shipping lane.

Trump further clarified that an agreement had been “largely negotiated, subject to finalization between the United States of America, the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the various other Countries.” This announcement was corroborated by a Pakistani source who informed Reuters that Iran and Pakistan had submitted a revised proposal to the United States to conclude the war and facilitate the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A regional official, with direct knowledge of the Pakistan-led mediation efforts, had previously told the Associated Press that the potential deal would include an official declaration of the war’s end, followed by two-month negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, the opening of the crucial shipping lane by Iran, and an end to the US blockade of Iranian ports.

Prior to Trump’s public statement, there were hints of progress in indirect talks between the US and Iran over the preceding days. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during a visit to India, suggested that “news” might emerge “later today,” even as Trump continued to issue threats of striking Iran. In his post, Trump revealed he had engaged in phone discussions with numerous Middle Eastern leaders, including those from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, as well as Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, and Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He also noted a very successful call with Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel. Trump met with American negotiators, including special envoy Steve Witkoff, adviser Jared Kushner, and JD Vance, to discuss the latest proposals.

However, the lead-up to the announcement remained tense, with Trump reiterating threats of military action. He had previously stated that he would only sign a deal “where we get everything we want,” warning that if an agreement was not reached, the US would resume strikes against Iran. Drop Site News reported that Iran’s latest proposal to mediators included the provisional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Alongside this, Iran requested the US to end its blockade of Iranian ports, release billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets, and formulate a plan to compensate Iran for damages sustained during the war. According to Drop Site’s source, the Iranian proposal aimed for a permanent end to the war before any negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program could commence, a point where it diverged from some earlier suggestions.

The exact details of how many of Iran’s requested points were incorporated into the memorandum Trump referenced remain unclear. Iran’s top negotiator, earlier in the day, affirmed during a meeting with the Pakistani army chief in Tehran that there would be no compromise over its national rights. He stated on state television that their intention was to draft a “memorandum of understanding, a kind of framework agreement composed of 14 clauses.” Furthermore, Iran’s Fars news agency, which is closely aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported that the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control and directly contradicted Trump’s assertion that an agreement was nearly final, calling it “inconsistent with reality.”

Three senior Iranian officials reportedly informed the New York Times that the agreement would involve stopping the fighting in Iran and Lebanon, potentially releasing $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets held overseas, with a nuclear agreement to be negotiated within 30 to 60 days. Shortly after Trump’s post outlining the draft agreement, Fars news agency, via Telegram, reiterated that “the management of the Strait, determining the route, time, method of passage, and issuing permits will continue to be the monopoly and discretion of the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

News of the potential deal triggered considerable dismay among Republican hawks in the United States, many of whom had advocated for US military action against Iran for years and had criticized the 2015 deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA) that limited Iran’s nuclear enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief under the Obama administration. Trump himself withdrew from the international JCPOA in 2018.

Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first term, openly denounced the rumored terms of the deal. He argued that they were too similar to what Barack Obama’s negotiators had achieved and would serve as a boon to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Pompeo stated on social media, “The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world,” referring to Obama’s negotiators. He proposed an alternative: “straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region.”

Robert Malley, one of the Obama-era negotiators, responded to the criticism by saying, “Not quite the path Wendy, Ben or I would have taken. But if this deal brings an end to an unlawful, unjustifiable war, to the senseless loss of life and destruction, and to the cascading global economic fallout, I am quite sure we’d willingly accept it over the alternative.” This exchange further highlighted the deep political divisions surrounding any potential agreement with Iran. Republican Senator Roger Wicker expressed concern that a “rumored 60-day ceasefire – with the belief that Iran will ever engage in good faith – would be a disaster. Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” To this, Ben Rhodes retorted, “Nothing was accomplished by Operation Epic Fury except putting the IRGC in charge of Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.”