Tension on trade deals ratchets up amid signs of Apr-May front-loading; Nikkei 40K amid JP soft data; Focus on US May Core PCE.

stating "Pres Trump can pick and choose". [Comes on the back of US Treas Sec on Jun 11th saying the US is “prepared to "roll the date forward for trading partners negotiating in good faith”, and Japan’s Trade Rep on Jun 19th claiming “July 9th is NOT the deadline for trade talks”].

of a 'bunch' of trade deals in the next week or so, including the EU and some elements of a China deal.

from major US trading partners such as the EU, Asian and LATAM countries as the July 9th deadline approaches.

withbelow estimates across all figures (weakest annualized pace since March) and alsowith the monthly retail number in the negatives.weaker into the figures but in the end the dollar only slightly higher from the start of the session.

- Of interest,

last night’s OIS probability of a Japan BOJ October rate hike ticked up slightly to 41%, and December up to 58.5%.

Stanley Electric and Round One, as the recently-ended quarter’s earnings season gets underway. [Note: Mazda withheld guidance in prior quarter, while trading houses such as Mitsubishi and Sumitomo provided cautious forecasts. Toyota and Honda gave guidance, but estimated significant hits to profits due to tariffs].

strong again today, alone in Asia - led by tech stocks - and set to set to post (4.8% at time of writing)

Global Vehicle Sales:responsible (?) as US exports up a stunning +23% y/y. Comes as also saw versus the fall in May.

after hours] guidance also helped by? [** Reminder: on Jun 20th China manufacturers said to receive early orders related to Christmas].

- Like yesterday, again under-performed Asia, -0.8%, halting its stellar advance since the Jun 3rd election win by Pres Lee. just a couple of days ago).

expressed confidence that itsdespite China's investment of billions of dollars.

-9.1% y/y, worst fall since Oct 2024.

and approaching the all-time-high recorded a couple of week back, sector,+2.3% [ +2.4%]. Also prices overnight with Copper miner . However,as the session continued.

, with Household inflation expectations lifted 0.3%, the highest in two years.

- As the Israel-Iran ceasefire continues to hold for nuclear inspections.

- US equity FUTs +0.1% during Asian trading.

- Fri Jun 27th (Fri night ).

- Fri Jun 27th Malaysia, Indonesia.

-

- Australia FY Underlying Cash Deficit to end-May (A$) 5.5B.

- New Zealand Jun ANZ Consumer Confidence Index: 98.8 v 92.9 prior; NZ confidence data: Household inflation expectations lifted 0.3%pt and are the highest in two years.

- Hong Kong May Total Gold exports 57.8Mt v 58.6Mt m/m.

- Kura Sushi: To exit mainland China and close all stores – Nikkei.

- China PBOC to strengthen credit support for private cos, enhance 'observation' on loan fund flows – Press.

- China MOF (CNY): May Net Local Government Debt Issuance: 491.9B; Net local gov't special bond issuance: 443.2B.

t [overnight update].

- China said to start issuing rare earth export licenses to European companies - SCMP (update).

- Hong Kong May Trade Balance (HKD): -27.3B v -14.0Be [overnight update].

- China PBOC sets Yuan reference rate: 7.1627 v 7.1620 prior.

- China PBOC Open Market Operation (OMO): Injects CNY526B in 7-day reverse repos; Net injects CNY365B v injects CNY306B prior.

; CPI (ex-fresh food/energy) Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.3%e.

- Japan May Jobless Rate: 2.5% v 2.5%e.

; Imports +4.9% (provisional).

- BOJ: Japan end-Q1 Household Assets at ¥2,195T, -1.8% y/y; Household Assets in Stocks -3.9% - Quarterly Flow of Funds report.

- - financial press, citing

- Japan Fin Min Kato: To closely communicate with relevant authorities to prevent trade of illegal drugs, including Fentanyl; will continue cautious consideration of possibility of buybacks of previously issued bonds.

- Tokyo Electron despite China's investment of billions of dollars - financial press.

- May Global Vehicle Sales: +6.9% y/y [largest gain 'ever' for the month of May.].

- Japan sells ¥4.4T vs. ¥4.4T indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield: 0.4215% v 0.4207% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.01x v 4.05x prior.

-

- South Korea Fin Min: Will issue more FX stabilization bonds in H2 if necessary - statement.

- South Korea to announce steps in July to cool down home prices – press [overnight update].

- Vietnam Central Bank (SBV) allowed to offer zero-interest rate loans to 'troubled' banks - Press.

- Follow up: Taiwan Finance Ministry: To impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese beer and some China steel goods - statement.

- India-US trade talks said to be in deadlock ahead of the July 9th deadline - financial press.

- Thailand Fin Min: Will not propose name of new Thailand Central Bank (BOT) Gov to Cabinet next week [overnight update].

- (US) Follow up: US Energy Dept: SPR reserve deliveries not to be completed until Dec - financial press.

- (US) Fed's Kashkari (non-voter): We do our best to make decisions based on data and analysis, not politics - Town hall and Q&A in Montana.

- press.

- White House NEC Dir Hassett: Has high confidence in "BBB" tax bill passing by July 4th - Fox News interview.

- (MX) Mexico May Trade Balance: $1.0B v $0.4Be.

- (BR) Brazil Mid-Jun IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 5.3% v 5.3%e.

- (US) Def Sec Hegseth: Iran nuclear capabilities decimated - press conference.

- (US) MAY PRELIMINARY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES M/M: -0.3% V +0.2%E.

- (US) MAY ADVANCE GOODS TRADE BALANCE: -$96.6B V -$86.1BE; Exports M/M drop registered biggest drop since 2020.

- (US) Q1 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: -0.5% V -0.2% PRELIM; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 0.5% V 1.2%E.

- (US) Fed's Goolsbee (voter): Jobs data shows full employment, steadyish state and nothing has changed at this point - CNBC.

- (US) Fed’s Barkin (non-voter for 2025): Businesses still in pause mode amid uncertainty; Inflation will be pressured higher by tariffs; Fed faces risks on both job and inflation mandates - speech text.

- (US) Fed’s Daly (non-voter): Data confirms US labor market data is solid; Still waiting for more information on inflation - TV interview.

- (IR) US Pres Trump: Nothing was taken out of Iranian nuclear facility [Fordow, before US bombing] - Truth Social post.

- (IR) EU intelligence said to suggest that Iran moved uranium prior to US strikes - FT.

- (US) MAY PENDING HOME SALES M/M: 1.8% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: -0.3% V -3.5% PRIOR.

- (US) WEEKLY EIA NATURAL GAS INVENTORIES: +96 BCF VS. +87 BCF TO +89 BCF INDICATED RANGE.

- (MX) MEXICO CENTRAL BANK (BANXICO) CUTS OVERNIGHT RATE BY 50BPS TO 8.00%; AS EXPECTED; Dep Gov Heath voted to leave rates unchanged.

- (US) TREASURY $44B 7-YEAR NOTE AUCTION RESULTS: DRAWS 4.022% V 4.194% PRIOR, BID-TO-COVER RATIO: 2.53 V 2.69 PRIOR AND 2.63 OVER THE LAST 12.

- (US) Commerce Sec Lutnick: Will announce a 'bunch' of trade deals in the next week or so; I have become optimistic about a European deal; Confirms some details of China deal - media interview.

- (US) White House Press Sec Leavitt: July 9th tariff deadline not critical; Pres Trump can pick reciprocal tariff rate if deals fail; No plan to change July 9th deadline; Changing it is Pres Trump's decision.

- (IR) Follow up: Iran says it has no intention to host IAEA Dir Gen Grossi for nuclear inspections - financial press.

- (UK) May Vehicle Production 49.8K units, -32.8% y/y (75 year low) - SMMT.

- France Pres Macron: All tools at our disposal must be used on US tariffs; In favor of quick, balanced EU-US trade deal - financial press.

- European Commission Pres Von der Leyen: EU is assessing the latest US trade proposal; EU is ready to do a deal, but will also be prepared if no satisfactory deal can be reached - financial press.

- (DE) German Chancellor Merz: EU leaders have called for the EU President to quickly reach a trade deal with the US.

- EU said to consider lowering tariffs on US imports to entice Pres Trump - WSJ.

- (IR) US discussed easing Iran sanctions - CNN.

- Nikkei 225 +1.4%, ASX 200 -0.2%, Hang Seng -0.4%; Shanghai Composite -0.4%; Kospi -1.0%.

- Equity S&P500 Futures +0.1%; Nasdaq100 +0.1%; DAX +0.6%; FTSE100 flat.

- EUR 1.1681-1.1711; JPY 144.20-145.81; AUD 0.6540-0.6562; NZD 0.6049-6077.

- Gold -1.2% at $3,307/oz; Crude Oil +0.6% at $65.65/bbl; Copper +0.1% at $5.0590/lb.