The political crisis in South Sudan has deepened, with Vice President Riek Machar placed under house arrest, sparking international concern and warnings of a potential return to civil war. The United Nations and regional leaders are urgently calling for intervention to stabilize the situation and prevent further escalation of tensions between the country's leaders.

Machar and his wife, who also serves as the interior minister, were detained following an attack in Nasir, Upper Nile State, where a military general and ten others were killed. South Sudanese authorities have linked the attack to a militia allegedly associated with Machar, further straining the already fragile political landscape. Kenya’s special envoy to South Sudan, Raila Odinga, has confirmed Machar’s arrest and the ongoing investigations, but he also cautioned that no direct connection between Machar and the killings has been established.

Odinga, who has been actively involved in mediating the crisis, expressed grave concern about the explosive nature of the situation. "The situation in South Sudan is explosive and can escalate at any time," he warned. His efforts to meet with Machar were reportedly blocked by President Salva Kiir, who suggested Odinga instead consult with Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.

Following the denial, Odinga traveled to Entebbe, Uganda, to confer with Museveni, relaying his findings from South Sudan. Museveni assured him that he would contact President Kiir to address the escalating crisis. Odinga also plans to update Kenyan President William Ruto, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, and Djibouti’s President Ismaïl Omar Guelleh on the situation, emphasizing the urgent need for international intervention.

The United Nations has echoed these concerns, with Secretary-General António Guterres highlighting the dire situation in South Sudan and urging the country's leaders to honor their peace commitments. He specifically called for the vigorous implementation of peace agreements as a precursor to peaceful and fair elections scheduled for December 2026. The UN is working with the African Union to address the crisis, acknowledging the A.U.'s initiative to deploy a panel of the Wise and the efforts of Kenya's special envoy.

Despite the allegations linking Machar's supporters to the killings, no formal charges have been brought against him. Odinga clarified that South Sudanese officials have not directly implicated Machar but suggest that some of his supporters may be involved. He conveyed that he would only return to Juba if allowed to meet with Machar, a condition that authorities have indicated they would consider upon completion of the investigations.

The detention of Machar and the surrounding accusations have heightened the risk of renewed civil war in South Sudan, a country already struggling with the aftermath of a five-year conflict that the 2018 peace deal was intended to resolve. Both Kiir and Machar, once allies in the fight for South Sudan's independence from Sudan in 2011, have become entrenched rivals, their political feud threatening to destabilize the nation further. The ongoing conflict in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has exacerbated regional instability, adding pressure to South Sudan's precarious situation.

The international community is now faced with the challenge of preventing a relapse into full-scale conflict, ensuring the safety and security of South Sudanese citizens, and supporting the country's transition towards lasting peace and stability.