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S. Africa police minister fingered in ANC succession battle - CNBC Africa

Published 1 day ago3 minute read

As South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) navigates through an increasingly turbulent political landscape, it faces not only a battle for internal succession but also a struggle to maintain its footing in a rapidly fragmenting political environment. The ANC, which once held unassailable power since the dawn of South African democracy, is grappling with diminishing support, holding only 40% of parliamentary seats—a significant decline from its heyday. In an illuminating interview with Dr. Oscar van Heerden from the University of Johannesburg’s Center for African Diplomacy and Leadership, the intricacies of this struggle were laid bare. Dr. van Heerden painted a picture of an ANC riddled with internal conflicts and ideological divides as it prepares for the next leadership contest in 2027. “The ANC is so obsessed with who's going to be leading and being the captain of the ship, they don't even realize the ship might be at the bottom of the ocean by the time 2027 arrives,” noted van Heerden, echoing the sentiments of Premier Lesufi in Gauteng. The ANC’s internal divisions reflect a larger schism within South African politics, particularly with its recent foray into coalition politics. While some members view coalitions as a pragmatic embrace of the future, others staunchly cling to the past, longing for the days when the ANC wielded a decisive majority. Externally, the ANC is under pressure from multiple fronts. There are mounting concerns about foreign influences in South Africa’s electoral processes. Allegations have surfaced regarding influences from abroad, with some ANC members allegedly seeking support from international administrations—a move viewed with unease by those questioning the integrity of South Africa's electoral sovereignty. Within this context, the political future of South Africa rests on complex individual and collective quests for influence inside the ANC. Dr. van Heerden identified potential candidates like Police Minister Senzo Mchunu, who is rumored to be President Ramaphosa’s favored competitor, along with other notable figures such as Fikile Mbalula and Paul Mashatile. For some in the race, believing they are contenders might not suffice—support and clear direction are crucial. Despite being at the forefront of South African politics since the end of apartheid, the ANC is experiencing unprecedented scrutiny over its leadership strategy, as well as its internal coherence and ability to govern effectively. The question persists: With internal battles and declining national appeal, can the ANC reforge its path to hegemony? Even potential dark horses sitting in the wings, such as Patrice Motsepe, present tantalizing but uncertain prospects for the party. Meanwhile, the shortage of female candidates has raised questions about the ANC’s approach to gender diversity in leadership roles, though figures like Nomvula Mokonyane and Ramokgopa are ready to challenge this status quo. Ultimately, as Dr. van Heerden suggested, the ANC must find leadership capable of not just navigating its internal electioneering but guiding national policy with coherence and renewed commitment to national unity and development. With major elections looming and several women potentially entering the fray, there is hope that the political dynamics within the ANC will evolve in ways that reflect both past lessons and future aspirations.

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