Allegation that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is working desperately to turn Nigeria into a one party state signifies in no small measure that the opposition is losing its bearing. It is also clear that its grip on the political muscle of the nation is becoming flaccid. Thanks to its rudderless driving of the vehicle of antagonism to the policies of the government in power and the continuous flouting of intra-party agreements, cohesion and cooperation.

The argument that the President is trying to turn Nigeria into a one party state is itself naive, extremely innocent and gullible. This position being canvassed by those who should know, particularly, the cream of the opposition, makes a mockery of the watchdog assignment that the group is expected to accomplish.

Can the president turn the country that is plural in nature and governed by a statute that guarantees the existence of multiple political parties with their variant ideologies into a one party state? The situation on ground is similar to the argument of a student who is unable to pass examination accusing the brilliant student of wanting to make him fail.

There are many reasons for the failure of the opposition. First, is that these rival parties, especially the Peoples Democratic and the Labour Parties occupied their time with smearing the name of President Bola Tinubu rather than critical appraisal of the activities and policies of the government in power.

Second, is that the breathing space required between winning election and settling down for understanding the flow of government policies, (This was not done during election campaigns because a lot of time was wasted in struggling with the credentials and pedigree of the rival candidate rather than frontal attack on manifesto) was not allowed to mature as the losing parties began the preparation of taking over governance in 2027 from the day the presidential result for 2023 was announced. This created a lot of internal crisis within the parties.

In one main opposition party, an individual who has serially lost election seems to be showing interest from day one that he is not ready and not in a hurry to quit the stage. This attitude spurred and irked those who believed that his refusal to accept electoral misfortune is affecting and stifling their own political progression and personal ambition within the parties. Most of the cross carpeters of the day are those in this category.

The first misdirected salvo was fired by the former governor of Kaduna State, Malam el-Rufai who was seen by most people as seeking a revenge after a disgraceful outing during the screening of the list of ministers sent to the National assembly by the President. To compound the woes of the opposition, El-Rufai went to town with a shopping bag of coalition that brought home emptiness.

Consequently, the All Progressive Congress and its government that was initially too busy trying to achieve the content of its manifesto and trying to solving the nation’s problems than place its focus on the return to power in 2027 was woken up from its ambition lethargy.

Indeed, the diminutive Malam woke a giant from the slumber and committed political suicide with his open aggression against a government that he joined in selling to the people in 2023. His desperation to trade the Northern Agenda also failed woefully because the North would rather allow Tinubu to finish his tenure than support the installation of another Southerner who would insist on spending another eight years.

The People Democratic Party, a major opposition in the country embarked on a serious self immolation by opening a small window of its restive compound for the Kaduna henchman to peep inside and this, if one may agree is what pushed the party to the Intensive Care Unit when it struggles to breath due to the intensive attack of Wike and others who were disgruntled with the refusal of the party to honour its zoning arrangement.. To borrow from Chinua Achebe’s lexicon since then “Things fell apart” for the opposition.

The backlash effect of the coalition proposed by the strange bed fellows in opposition turns into an advantage for the party in power. From South-South to South East to North East and North West, the gust of defection is blowing almost uncontrollably. The critical mass of the opposition has become so delirious that one begins to wonder if the “pot of sweet and honey” in the backyard of the All Progressive Congress is as attractive as flower scent is to the butterfly.

The situation has become so desperate that Prof Pat Utomi, who is more of a classroom person than a conventional politician, sensing a vacuum has decided to team up with Dele Farotimi to form a “Shadow Government”. Whatever that means but at least it calls attention to the vacuum being created by the excessive ambition of some individuals in the opposition. Therefore, to put the blame on the shoulder of ruling party or the president is to be economical with the truth.

Politicians are like marketers as they have to canvass to sell their manifesto and other products to the masses. This is the only way to regularly stay alive and increase their membership volume. While it is the duty of the opposition to retain and increase its membership, the ruling party does not owe the opposition explanation for its membership drive. Neither does the president owe anybody except its party explanation for receiving, cross-carpeting individuals, provided he has the space and time within his diary to do so.

Nigerian opposition’s pre-occupation is geared towards grabbing power rather than working towards nation building. This may be the reason why campaign for the next election always starts at the conclusion of every election. Political parties rarely devote time to shadowing government and its policies.

With selfish and self-centred money bags who place personal interest above collective party survival roaming the corridors of those parties, it is not surprising that such organizations rarely survive the pressure from the ruling government.

It is indeed clear that in terms of intra- party management, the President and its political party are faring better, a lot better than the opposition. That Nigeria may become a one party state is largely the doing of a dis-oriented opposition rather than the work of an articulate president.

Ojikutu is a retired Professor of Statistics, University of Lagos.