Osun Decides 2026: Political Tensions Soar, Davido Weighs In, Security Measures Tighten

Osun State is set to hold its highly anticipated governorship election on Saturday, August 15, 2026, a crucial off-cycle poll with 15 candidates vying for the top office. Among the leading contenders are the incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke, running under the Accord Party banner after previously winning on the PDP ticket in 2022; Asiwaju Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC); and Najeem Salaam, the flagbearer for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The election follows closely on the heels of Ekiti State's governorship election earlier in the year and is seen as the final major gubernatorial test before the 2027 presidential elections.

In the lead-up to the polls, President Bola Tinubu has issued a strong call to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and security agencies, urging them to ensure a peaceful, transparent, free, and fair election. He specifically cautioned security agencies against allowing troublemakers to disrupt the process, emphasizing the need for maximum security at polling units to protect electoral officials and voters. President Tinubu tasked INEC with using this election as a benchmark to demonstrate its readiness for the 2027 general polls, stressing that the outcome must accurately reflect the will of the people of Osun State. Voters have been encouraged to discharge their civic responsibility without fear, with assurances of their safety.

Security measures for the election are comprehensive. The Nigeria Police Force announced a restriction of movement across the state from midnight on Friday, August 14, 2026, until 6:00 p.m. on Saturday, August 15, 2026. This directive permits only exempted movements and calls for full public cooperation. Significantly, the police reiterated a prohibition on the participation of non-state security actors, such as Amotekun, in election-related operations. Only constitutionally recognized security agencies are authorized to perform law enforcement duties, with non-state groups explicitly directed to stay away from activities that could intimidate voters or disrupt peace.

Yiaga Africa’s Watching The Vote (WTV) Working Group conducted inspections of INEC offices in selected local government areas, including Ejigbo and Ede North, to assess preparedness. In Ejigbo, sensitive election materials arrived early Friday, with security personnel from the State Security Service (SSS) and Nigeria Police Force already securing the locations. Supervisory Presiding Officers (SPOs) and Assistant Presiding Officers (APOs) were reported ready for deployment, and party agents from Accord, PDP, and ADC were present during the material distribution. However, in Ede North, logistical preparations were still ongoing after 11 a.m. on Friday, with officials still sorting materials and working to activate Registration Area Centres (RACs), which are critical for deploying election officials to polling stations.

The political discourse has been marked by various exchanges. Afrobeats singer David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, publicly affirmed his intention to be in Osun before 7 a.m. on election day to vote, responding to online critics who questioned his commitment to his role as chairman of the Osun Sports Trust Fund and his involvement in his uncle Governor Adeleke's election. Davido also criticized Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq for comments made at an APC rally, linking the Kwara governor's "accessibility to the President" with insecurity in Kwara. In a separate development, Omoyele Sowore, the AAC’s 2027 presidential candidate, engaged in a verbal spat with Davido, questioning Governor Ademola Adeleke's academic background and accusing him of treating Osun State as a "private estate" by supporting President Tinubu in 2023 to protect family interests.

Governor Ademola Adeleke, reflecting on his administration and anticipating the post-election period, announced plans to establish an independent commission of inquiry immediately after the August 15, 2026 election. This commission will investigate reported killings and other acts of violence linked to the electoral process, aiming to bring culprits to justice regardless of their political affiliations. The governor expressed deep condolences to families of victims of election-related violence, emphasizing that political differences should never lead to loss of life, and promised a framework to support and compensate affected families.

The past four years of Governor Adeleke’s administration, which began in November 2022, present a mixed record. He campaigned on a five-point agenda focusing on workers' welfare, economic development, infrastructure, social services, and agro-industrialization. Upon assuming office, he claimed to have inherited substantial obligations, including N75 billion in salary and pension arrears, contradicting former Governor Oyetola's claim of leaving a N14 billion surplus. Despite this, Adeleke’s government has made notable strides in several areas. It successfully reduced the state's domestic debt by 43.84% (from N148.37 billion in December 2022 to N83.32 billion by March 2025) and external debt from $91.78 million to $75.14 million. Internally Generated Revenue (IGR) almost doubled, rising from N27.72 billion in 2023 to N54.7 billion in 2024.

Infrastructure development has been a visible hallmark of Adeleke's tenure. His administration launched a N100 billion infrastructure plan in October 2023, followed by a second phase valued at N159 billion in March 2025. These plans targeted extensive road rehabilitation and construction (over 350 km), dualization projects in key towns like Ilesa, Ila, and Iwo, and the construction of flyovers in Ile-Ife and Osogbo. However, the administration has faced criticism regarding the quality of some projects, such as reported cracks in the LAMECO Flyover in Osogbo, and concerns that several flagship projects remained works in progress as the election approached. Opposition parties have frequently accused the government of executing substandard projects.

In workers' welfare, the administration has paid portions of inherited salary and pension arrears, approved promotion arrears, and implemented the new national minimum wage. The Osun NLC chairman commended these efforts, and the government claims to have paid almost N100 billion in inherited pension debt. While these interventions improved conditions, a complete resolution of workers' welfare concerns remains an ongoing task. In education, the government reported school rehabilitations and significant budget allocations, and Osun recorded a 72.64% pass rate in the 2025 NECO Senior Secondary School Certificate Examination. Despite receiving an award for education performance, funding still fell below the national policy benchmark (12% allocated vs. 26% recommended). Healthcare initiatives included medical outreaches and facility rehabilitation, but critics point to persistent shortages of personnel, equipment, and drugs. Agro-industrialization efforts involved mechanization and youth-focused programs, though the evidence of economy-wide transformation is still developing.

A significant controversy during Adeleke’s term has been the prolonged local government crisis. The dispute over control of Osun’s 30 local governments led to a political and legal battle between the state government and APC-backed former council officials, resulting in five deaths. Despite conducting local government elections, Governor Adeleke advised newly sworn-in chairpersons against immediately occupying secretariats due to the presence of rival officials. This dispute ultimately led to the federal government withholding local government allocations, creating disruptions in grassroots governance. While the Supreme Court later struck out Osun’s suit challenging this, it also criticized the federal government's actions, highlighting the strain on institutional restraint and political management, and leaving the local government system weakened.

The pre-election period has been marred by a concerning level of violence. CJID’s Conflict Tracker recorded 34 violent incidents and 18 deaths since May 2026, with the Nigeria Police documenting at least 30 politically motivated killings. Political parties have reported even higher, though conflicting, casualty figures. The nature of this violence is complex, often overlapping with criminal activity and cult-related attacks, making attribution difficult. The violence has been heavily concentrated in areas like Ilesa (Igbogi/Ikoti, Egbatedo), Oriade, Ijebu-Jesha, Ilobu, Ikire, and Osogbo. INEC has identified 11 local government areas as potential flashpoints, many of which overlap with these areas of concern. The intensity of the violence is attributed to the blurring lines between political and cult violence, the highly competitive multi-party race following Governor Adeleke's party defection, and reciprocal accusations among political camps, which raise the risk of reprisals. This environment of fear has the potential to suppress voter participation, affecting electoral integrity. With 15,000 police officers and military support deployed, the effectiveness of security measures will depend on their impartiality and equitable conduct. The post-election period will also be critical, as a close or disputed result could exacerbate existing tensions, making the response of candidates, security agencies, and INEC crucial for maintaining peace.

Osun State has a substantial electorate of 2,339,233 registered voters, with 1,906,390 Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs) collected. However, voter concentration varies significantly. Osogbo, the state capital, holds the largest number of registered voters with 167,704, followed by Ife East (128,515) and Olorunda (123,063). Collectively, the top 10 LGAs account for 47.6% of the state’s total registered voters, including major blocs in Ede (164,373), Ife (317,224), and the Ijesa axis (332,473). While these large blocs are critical, candidates must also secure votes across the state's medium and smaller LGAs to meet the constitutional requirement of winning the highest number of votes and at least 25% of the votes cast in two-thirds (20) of the 30 LGAs. Experts predict a close contest, with winning margins potentially between 20,000 and 30,000 votes, emphasizing that turnout, not just registration, will ultimately decide the election, especially given potential voter apathy, fear, or intimidation.

Beyond the election, Osun State, created on August 27, 1991, from Oyo State, remains a region of significant cultural and economic importance. Known as the "Land of Virtue" or "State of the Living Spring" (after the Osun River), its capital is Osogbo. The state boasts an economy centered on agriculture (cocoa, cassava, yam) and has a textile industry. It is home to the UNESCO World Heritage Site, the Osun-Osogbo Sacred Grove, and Ile-Ife, considered the cradle of Yoruba civilization. While rich in mineral resources like gold, unregulated mining has led to environmental concerns. Its rich history includes 10 governors since its creation, and its people are gearing up for an election that will shape its future trajectory amidst complex political and security challenges.