In the wake of the 2023 presidential election, which saw Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerge victorious by a margin of approximately two million votes, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been a vocal proponent of forming an opposition coalition. Atiku has even gone so far as to suggest that the ruling party harbors ambitions of establishing a one-party state. A closer examination of the 2023 election results reveals that a united front between Atiku and Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) could have potentially altered the outcome. Tinubu secured the presidency with 8,794,726 votes (36.61%), while Atiku garnered 6,984,520 votes (29.07%), and Obi obtained 6,101,533 votes (25.40%). It's worth noting that in 2019, when Atiku and Obi jointly contested on the PDP ticket, they amassed 11,262,978 votes against then-incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s 15,191,847.

While Atiku's advocacy for a coalition dates back to 2023, the recent defection of former Kaduna State governor, Nasir El-Rufai, from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has injected fresh momentum into these discussions. Following his defection, El-Rufai issued a call to opposition leaders, including Atiku, Obi, and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), urging them to unite. Kwankwaso finished fourth in the 2023 elections with 1,496,671 votes.

However, Atiku's ally, former Jigawa State governor, Sule Lamido, has expressed skepticism about the coalition, raising questions about Atiku's motivations. Meanwhile, Obi has consistently maintained that he is not interested in a coalition solely focused on unseating the ruling party. Nevertheless, his recent meeting with Bauchi State governor, Bala Mohammed, where they pledged to collaborate ahead of 2027, suggests a potential shift in strategy. With Atiku, Obi, and El-Rufai now seemingly aligned, observers are pondering who will assume the leadership role within this coalition.

At a recent gathering of key opposition figures, Atiku Abubakar declared the formation of a coalition aimed at challenging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the 2027 elections. This announcement was made during a press conference in Abuja, attended by numerous opposition politicians, including former APC members who have since defected. The event was convened to address President Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State due to the ongoing political crisis there.

Among those present were Peter Obi, represented by Dr. Yunusa Tanko; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir David Lawal; former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai; former gubernatorial hopeful in Ogun State, Segun Sowunmi; former Director General of Progressive Governors Forum (PGF), Dr. Salihu Lukman; Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri, Chief Peter Ameh, and Soni Monidafe.

When questioned about whether the emerging coalition would serve as the primary opposition against the APC in the 2027 elections, Atiku affirmed, "Yes, this is the birth of the coalition of opposition ahead of 2027." Despite reservations among some stakeholders, Atiku's statement signals a significant political realignment, with opposition forces preparing to challenge the APC's dominance.

Observers are raising questions about how leaders with diverse ideologies, ambitions, and party affiliations can effectively collaborate to fulfill their promises to Nigerians. One prominent member of the 8th Senate, who played a role in the coalition that ousted former President Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, expressed doubts about the recent realignments. The source emphasized the importance of forming a strong political party through a merger, rather than a mere coalition. They also highlighted the need for strong leadership, as exemplified by the 2013 merger that resulted in Muhammadu Buhari's emergence as the leader and presidential candidate.

The source cautioned that the current efforts to form a coalition are occurring under time constraints and driven by personal ambitions, making it unlikely to defeat Tinubu. They emphasized Tinubu's strategic maneuvering leading up to the 2023 elections and his current access to resources and authority, suggesting that more than a coalition is needed to challenge him.

Historically, Nigerian electoral victories have often stemmed from pragmatic alliances rather than ideological alignment. Political alliances and coalitions are typically formed out of necessity, driven by the pursuit of power. While some have succeeded, many have faltered due to internal disputes and power struggles. Examples from the First Republic, such as the United Progressive Grand Alliance (UPGA), and more recent attempts in 2003, illustrate the challenges of maintaining cohesive opposition alliances.

The most successful coalition in Nigeria’s political history emerged in 2013, with the formation of the All Progressives Congress (APC) through the merger of several parties. This coalition achieved the unprecedented feat of defeating the PDP in the 2015 presidential election. Since then, efforts to replicate this success have fallen short.

Reacting to the recent developments, presidential spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, dismissed the "so-called coalition of politicians" as "sore losers" and asserted that President Tinubu remains focused on governance. Onanuga characterized the coalition as an amalgam of "Tinubu haters" driven by self-interest and a desire to obstruct Tinubu's progress.

While APC spokesman Felix Morka could not be reached for comment, sources within the party indicated that an official response would be issued soon. In an earlier reaction to Atiku’s call for unity, Morka had dismissed Atiku’s assertions as “laughable” and questioned his credibility, criticizing opposition figures for blaming the ruling party for their internal challenges.