The Baltic states are currently facing a heightened security challenge due to a series of drone incursions into their airspace, with Lithuania and Latvia experiencing significant incidents that have prompted calls for increased vigilance and robust defence measures. Lithuania’s defence minister, Robertas Kaunas, emphasized that Europe must be prepared for the high probability of more such events, describing it as the “new reality” for the Baltic states. He stressed the necessity to adapt, given the high likelihood of repeated scenarios.

A notable incident occurred in Lithuania’s capital, Vilnius, where citizens were instructed to seek immediate shelter after drone activity was detected near the border with Belarus. This led to the temporary shutdown of Vilnius airport and the evacuation of President Gitanas Nausėda and Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė to an underground bunker. Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Center, indicated that the drone was likely either a combat drone or one designed to deceive systems and lure targets, though its specific origin and whether it carried a warhead remained unclear. Recent weeks have seen various Ukrainian drones pushed into European airspace, partly due to Russian GPS jamming, complicating efforts to ascertain definitive origins.

In response to the Vilnius incursion, a NATO air police mission was activated, with two Portuguese fighter jets intercepting the drone. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte commended the alliance’s “calm, decisive and proportionate response” to several recent drone incidents. The suspected incursion, lasting roughly an hour, marked the first major alert of its kind for a European Union and NATO capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Despite official reports of no panic among residents, individuals like university student Viktoria expressed concerns about the city’s security and potential future incursions orchestrated by Russia.

Concurrently, the Latvian National Armed Forces (NBS) issued an alert following the detection of at least one unmanned aerial vehicle in its airspace. The NBS warned of a “possible threat” over its eastern regions, including Ludza, Krāslava, Rēzekne, and Augšdaugava, advising residents to seek shelter indoors, close windows and doors, and follow the “two-wall principle.” They also deployed additional units to Latvia’s eastern border to bolster air capabilities. The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence confirmed the drone detected in Vilnius was approaching from Belarus, further intensifying concerns about the region’s eastern flank.

In light of these events, Defence Minister Kaunas conceded the need to “increase and enhance our airspace defence” and highlighted ongoing investments in air defence capabilities, including new radars. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda underscored the interconnectedness of security, stating that “the security of the Baltic States is the security of Europe.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen strongly condemned the incidents, vowing that the bloc would respond with “unity and strength.” She explicitly stated, “Russia’s public threats against our Baltic States are completely unacceptable,” and held “Russia and Belarus bear direct responsibility for drones endangering the lives and security of people on our Eastern flank.”