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Naira Volatility Under Scrutiny: Tinubu's Exchange Rate Claims Fact-Checked

Published 1 day ago3 minute read
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Pelumi Ilesanmi
Naira Volatility Under Scrutiny: Tinubu's Exchange Rate Claims Fact-Checked

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu recently addressed members of The Buhari Organisation (TBO), a political group, at the Presidential Villa in Abuja. During this interaction, he asserted that the Nigerian Naira had significantly strengthened under his leadership, moving from an exchange rate of N1,900 to one US dollar when he assumed office to N1,450 per dollar currently. According to Tinubu, this development signifies a stabilized economy, with his government having met its 2024 revenue target ahead of schedule without resorting to borrowing. He claimed, "The economy has stabilised, nobody is trading a piece of paper for an exchange rate anymore," further adding that foreign exchange access no longer requires knowing specific individuals.

The President further outlined his administration's unwavering commitment to revitalizing the economy, fostering job creation, and achieving food sovereignty through a modernized agricultural sector. He announced plans for a large-scale mechanization programme, which includes establishing agricultural centres, implementing training schemes, and generating employment opportunities nationwide. Tinubu also dismissed any potential impact of United States President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs on Nigeria, emphasizing his government's focus on building a robust and diversified economy less reliant on oil revenue. He told his guests, "If non-oil revenue is going where it is going, then have no fear of whatever Trump is doing on the other side." The TBO delegation, led by former Nasarawa State Governor Tanko Al-Makura and House of Representatives Speaker Abbas Tajudeen, pledged their "unconditional support" for Tinubu’s administration and his 2027 re-election bid, to which Tinubu expressed gratitude, recalling his political partnership with the late former President Muhammadu Buhari and promising to immortalise him with a "Buhari House."

However, a subsequent verification report directly challenged President Tinubu’s assertions regarding the Naira's exchange rate. The report meticulously scrutinizes the claim that the Naira was trading at N1,900 to $1 when he took office on May 29, 2023. At that time, Nigeria operated a multiple exchange rate system, where the official rate at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window was a managed float, distinct from the parallel or black market rate. The parallel market, which served a significant portion of the informal economy, reportedly traded at approximately N750 to $1 during Tinubu's inauguration.

The dramatic depreciation of the Naira to N1,900 to $1 did not occur in May 2023. Instead, this low point was a direct consequence of key economic reforms introduced by Tinubu's administration in mid-2023, including the removal of the fuel subsidy on May 29, 2023, and the unification of exchange rate windows by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on June 14, 2023. The Naira's value continued to weaken throughout late 2023 and early 2024, reaching its all-time low of approximately N1,800–N1,900 to $1 in the parallel market only in February and March 2024, nearly a year into his term. Furthermore, while the Naira has indeed appreciated from its lowest point in March 2024, President Tinubu’s quoted figure of N1,450 to $1 for August 2025 was found to be inaccurate. Reports for August 2025 indicated the Naira had strengthened to around N1,525 to $1, with the CBN officially reporting N1,531.45 to $1 on August 29, 2025.

In conclusion, the verification verdict states that President Tinubu’s claim that the Naira was at N1,900 to $1 when he assumed office in May 2023 is FALSE, as the currency’s value was significantly stronger then. The N1,900 mark was a result of his administration’s policies and reached much later. Similarly, his claimed exchange rate of N1,450 to $1 for August 2025 is also FALSE, despite the Naira showing a recovery trend.

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