By Nimish Gangrade, Editor, Global Agriculture

July 2025,  In the heartlands of Central India comprising Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh and northern Maharashtra, a quiet transformation in agriculture is taking place. This region, known for its diverse cropping systems, has long relied on soybean as a dominant kharif crop. However, over the next two to three years, maize is projected to steadily replace soybean across much of this zone. This is not a mere substitution of crops but a larger agronomic and economic realignment, driven by factors such as market demand, climate adaptability, cost efficiency, and industry readiness. Maize, a crop historically overshadowed by staples like rice and wheat, is emerging as a key driver of rural income, industrial linkages, and climate-resilient farming in India’s central belt.

Central India offers an ideal setting for this transition. The region receives moderate rainfall, is endowed with deep black soils, and has a significant population of small and medium farmers. These farmers are becoming increasingly receptive to change, especially when new cropping options come with assured procurement, stable prices, and reduced risk. Soybean, though widely grown, has become less attractive due to its growing vulnerability to pests and diseases, high cultivation costs, and volatile market prices. These challenges have prompted farmers to re-evaluate their crop choices, and maize has steadily risen as a reliable alternative that suits both their economic needs and agro-climatic realities.

Government data from the Ministry of Agriculture provides a clear narrative of maize’s rapid ascent. In the 2020-21 cropping season, maize was cultivated on 98.92 lakh hectares, producing 316.47 lakh tonnes. This area expanded steadily, reaching 112.41 lakh hectares in 2023-24 with production of 376.65 lakh tonnes.

The latest data for 2024-25 shows a substantial jump, with maize cultivation now covering 120.17 lakh hectares and generating a record 422.81 lakh tonnes of production.

2020-21	98.92	316.47	3,199
2021-22	99.58	337.30	3,387
2022-23	107.44	380.85	3,545
2023-24	112.41	376.65	3,351
2024-25	120.17	422.81	3,518

Alongside these gains, the yield has also improved from 3,199 kg per hectare in 2020-21 to 3,518 kg per hectare in 2024-25. Over this five-year span, maize has registered a compound annual growth rate of 4.99 percent in area, 7.51 percent in production, and 2.40 percent in yield. These figures confirm the solid agronomic and market fundamentals driving this transition.

Area	4.99%
Production	7.51%
Yield	2.40%

The key factor driving maize’s expansion is its lower cost of cultivation relative to soybean. Soybean farming has become increasingly input-intensive due to recurring attacks from pests like girdle beetle, stem fly, and stem rot fungi, which demand multiple pesticide applications, raising input costs considerably. In contrast, maize is less vulnerable to such pests, reducing both chemical applications and overall cost per acre.

Moreover, maize requires lower irrigation and matures faster than soybean, allowing for more efficient use of water, labor, and farm resources. For small and marginal farmers — who constitute the majority of Central India’s growers — these factors significantly reduce risk exposure while improving profitability, making maize an attractive option under current farming economics.

One of maize’s strongest advantages lies in the diverse and well-established markets that absorb its entire output. The poultry industry, which is expanding rapidly in India due to rising protein consumption, consumes nearly 60 percent of maize production for feed. In addition to grain utilization, maize biomass (stover) is used extensively as cattle fodder, ensuring that almost no part of the crop is wasted. This dual utility strengthens farm incomes while addressing the growing feed needs of India’s expanding livestock and poultry sectors.

The ethanol sector is another major pull factor. With India targeting 20 percent ethanol blending by 2025 end, there is an urgent need to diversify ethanol feedstock beyond sugarcane, which is water-intensive and geographically limited. Maize has emerged as a key alternative. The government has already approved grain-based ethanol production, and new distilleries are being established in Central India. This is expected to create a strong, localized demand for maize, giving farmers assured buyers and relatively stable prices. In the coming years, it is likely that a significant portion of India’s ethanol will be produced from maize grown in this very region.

From a biological and agronomic standpoint, maize has another distinct advantage: it is a C4 plant. Unlike C3 crops like soybean and rice, maize uses the C4 photosynthetic pathway, which is more efficient under high temperature and light conditions. This makes maize particularly well-suited for the hot, dry spells that are becoming increasingly common in Central India due to climate change. The core enzyme in this process, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase (PEPC), allows maize to fix carbon more efficiently, leading to higher photosynthetic rates, better water-use efficiency, and improved yield potential even under stress. This photosynthetic advantage positions maize as a climate-smart crop, an attribute that is being recognized not only by farmers but also by large agri-businesses and policymakers.

Seed companies have played a pivotal role in catalyzing this shift. Over recent years, both public and private seed companies have developed high-yielding maize hybrids customized for Central India’s agro-climatic conditions. These hybrids come with traits such as drought tolerance, improved grain starch content (useful for ethanol), better cob size, and uniformity — all of which enhance market acceptability.

Companies like Bayer, Corteva, Syngenta, Kaveri Seeds, Rasi Seeds, and Advanta are not only introducing improved seed genetics but also providing agronomic advisory, mechanization support, and training services that help farmers achieve optimal yields. These partnerships are strengthening the maize ecosystem and accelerating technology adoption at the grassroots level.

Institutional and industrial support for maize cultivation is also growing. India’s Ethanol Blending Programme and the National Bio-Energy Policy explicitly encourage diversification of feedstock sources, including maize. State governments have started promoting maize in their agricultural roadmaps, offering incentives such as input subsidies, training sessions, and procurement linkages. Grain-based ethanol distilleries are being set up in proximity to maize-growing regions, creating localized demand hubs. The poultry and livestock feed industries, which are already mature in states like Maharashtra and Telangana, are now expanding deeper into Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, giving maize farmers more selling options.

On a global level, the movement toward net-zero emissions is also indirectly favoring maize cultivation. Major agri-businesses and food corporations that have pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2040 or 2045 are encouraging climate-resilient crops like maize that use less water and produce fewer emissions per kilogram of output. Companies such as Cargill, ADM, Bayer, and several Indian players like ITC and Godrej Agrovet are investing in sustainable sourcing, contract farming, and traceability systems that include maize as a central component. As part of their sustainability initiatives, these corporations are expected to continue promoting maize not just in India but across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.

However, this transition does raise concerns regarding the future of soybean cultivation. As maize expands, soybean acreage in Central India is expected to decline, which could impact India’s already strained edible oil balance. India imports over half of its edible oil requirements, and a fall in domestic oilseed production may widen this gap further. This would increase India’s dependence on global markets, expose it to price volatility, and affect the livelihoods of those engaged in soybean processing and trade. To address this, there is a need for complementary strategies that improve soybean productivity on the remaining acreage, enhance processing efficiency, and promote alternative oilseeds like oil palm and mustard in suitable regions.

If the current CAGR trend sustains, maize acreage could cross 130–135 lakh hectares by 2027-28, while production may reach 475–490 lakh tonnes. Ethanol demand alone may consume up to 20 percent of maize output by then. Simultaneously, soybean acreage may decline by 10 to 12 percent, unless significant productivity gains are achieved.

Maize Area (Lakh Ha)	120.17	130–135
Maize Production (Lakh Tonnes)	422.81	475–490
Ethanol Share in Maize Use	~10%	~18–20%
Expected Soybean Acreage Decline	—	10–12%

For this transition to succeed and be sustainable, several support mechanisms need to be in place. These include access to climate-resilient seeds, scientific agronomy advisory, digital platforms for input supply and output marketing, and policy support such as crop insurance, Minimum Support Price (MSP) revision, and integration of maize into public procurement systems. In addition, financial institutions and agri-fintech startups need to design crop loans and working capital products tailored for maize cultivation cycles.

Central India is on the cusp of a maize-led agricultural transformation. This is not just a shift in cropping patterns but a larger reorientation of the rural economy around a crop that promises better incomes, lower input costs, and resilience to climate variability. Maize has the potential to become the cornerstone of sustainable agriculture in Central India. With the right mix of policy, innovation, and industry support, this transformation can lead to more secure livelihoods, improved nutritional security through feed and fodder, and stronger alignment with India’s climate goals and industrial growth strategies.

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