Last week, Indian markets experienced heightened volatility and ended slightly lower due to global bond market turmoil and foreign fund outflows. The announcement of tariffs by the U.S. intensified trade tensions, leading to sharp swings in the NIFTY50 index, which closed with a modest decline of 0.6%. The NIFTY Midcap 100 index declined by 0.6%, while the Smallcap 100 index rose by 0.4%, both forming indecision candles on the weekly chart. Sector-wise, Real Estate (+2.6%) and PSU banks (+1.1%) advanced the most, while Consumer Durables (-2.1%) and Automobiles (-1.8%) were the top losers.

The breadth of the NIFTY50 index cooled off, with 96% of its constituents trading above the 50-day moving average (DMA). FIIs maintained a mixed approach to index derivatives, shifting their long-to-short ratio to 33:67, causing market uncertainty and rangebound movement. In the cash market, FIIs turned net sellers, offloading shares worth ₹11,591 crore, while DIIs remained net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹11,197 crore.

The NIFTY50 index consolidated within the 24,350–25,200 range, forming an inside candle on the weekly chart, indicating that bulls are still in control. The index is trading above its key daily exponential moving averages (EMAs), with immediate support between 24,350 and 24,500. The BANK NIFTY index, after hitting a fresh all-time high in April, is consolidating at higher levels, with support-based buying from 54,100 and resistance at 55,900.

Key global events include Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech and releases of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index, FOMC meeting minutes, revised first-quarter U.S. GDP figures, and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Domestically, India’s GDP data for the first quarter of FY2025 is due. Key companies declaring results include Aurobindo Pharma, NMDC, Hindustan Copper, LIC, Info-Edge (Naukri), IRCTC, Steel Authority of India, Bajaj-Auto, Apollo Hospitals, and FSN E Commerce (Nykaa). Nvidia and Salesforce will also announce earnings.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on imports from the European Union and a 25% tariff on iPhones manufactured in India and sold in the U.S. Crude oil prices ended the week largely unchanged, forming a doji candlestick amid pressure from tariffs and OPEC+'s planned increase in supply. OPEC+ is expected to approve a production increase of 4,11,000 barrels per day for July.

The Indian stock market closed the week on a subdued note, with the Nifty and Sensex declining nearly 0.7% each, settling at 24,853 and 81,721, respectively. The Bank Nifty index edged up slightly. The Nifty 50 continues to trade above its key moving averages. Rising US Treasury yields dampened investor sentiment, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.63 per cent. Mixed corporate earnings and delays in finalising the India-US trade agreement added to the uncertainty.

Investors will monitor key market triggers, including Q4 results, domestic macroeconomic data, the monthly expiry of May derivatives contracts, foreign fund flows, and global cues. The release of India’s industrial and manufacturing production data for April, along with the FY25 and Q4FY25 gross domestic product (GDP) growth figures, will offer insights into the economic recovery trajectory. Four new mainboard public issues will open for subscription, including the Aegis Vopak Terminals IPO and Leela Hotels IPO. Five new SME IPOs will also be available.

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold ₹11,591 crore, while DIIs bought ₹11,199 crore during the week. Concerns over the US's debt burden triggered foreign portfolio outflows, putting pressure on emerging markets, including India. Speculation around favourable developments in the US-China trade deal raised concerns about potential capital outflows into Indian markets.

On the global front, developments in the US bond market, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, and progress in the India-US trade negotiations will influence market sentiment. US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech, and market participants will look for signals on future rate decisions. The FOMC minutes from the May 6–7, 2025, meeting will provide insights into the US Fed's outlook on interest rates, inflation, and the economy. Corporate actions include shares of Bajaj Finance, ITC, Angel One, and others trading ex-dividend next week.

Technically, the Nifty 50 is undergoing a consolidation phase, with immediate support around 24,500. A decisive breakout above 25,200 could reignite bullish momentum toward the 25,600 level.