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Is There An Opportunity With Extreme Networks, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:EXTR) 33% Undervaluation?

Published 1 day ago2 minute read

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Extreme Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXTR) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

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We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

US$89.5m

US$121.0m

US$136.4m

US$148.1m

US$158.2m

US$167.0m

US$175.0m

US$182.2m

US$189.0m

US$195.5m

Analyst x2

Analyst x2

Analyst x1

Est @ 8.56%

Est @ 6.82%

Est @ 5.60%

Est @ 4.74%

Est @ 4.15%

Est @ 3.73%

Est @ 3.43%

US$83.4

US$105

US$110

US$112

US$111

US$109

US$107

US$104

US$100

US$96.5

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
= US$1.0b

Origin:
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