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F5, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:FFIV) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 70% Above Its Share Price

Published 1 month ago2 minute read

How far off is F5, Inc. (NASDAQ:FFIV) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

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We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

US$864.4m

US$930.8m

US$986.9m

US$1.03b

US$1.07b

US$1.11b

US$1.15b

US$1.19b

US$1.22b

US$1.26b

Analyst x6

Analyst x5

Analyst x3

Est @ 4.60%

Est @ 4.04%

Est @ 3.65%

Est @ 3.38%

Est @ 3.19%

Est @ 3.06%

Est @ 2.97%

US$808

US$814

US$808

US$790

US$769

US$745

US$721

US$696

US$671

US$646

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
= US$7.5b

Origin:
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Yahoo Finance
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