The British foreign secretary, Yvette Cooper, is set to address Sudan’s warring factions at a significant conference in Berlin on Wednesday, urging them to halt the ongoing bloodshed. This pivotal meeting coincides with the third anniversary of the devastating conflict in Sudan, a war that analysts largely believe is unlikely to yield immediate, substantial steps towards peace despite the dire circumstances.

The primary focus of the Berlin talks is to confront a catastrophic funding deficit exacerbating what has been identified as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Alarmingly, only 16% of the necessary humanitarian funding for Sudan this year has been secured from the international community. This shortfall is particularly critical as diplomatic attention remains heavily diverted by the ongoing crisis in Iran, leaving Sudan’s needs severely underfunded.

Among the nations participating in the conference, Britain is expected to announce a significant increase in its humanitarian commitment. Foreign Secretary Cooper will unveil a doubling of UK aid, allocating £15 million to crucial Sudanese frontline responders, including the vital grassroots volunteer networks known as Emergency Response Rooms. This injection of funds aims to support those directly assisting the affected populations.

As the conflict enters its fourth brutal year, with no indications of a de-escalation between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese army, the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate rapidly. Recent assessments paint a grim picture: over 19 million people are currently facing acute hunger due to the fighting, with several regions teetering on the brink of famine. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) has reported "emergency" levels of hunger across extensive areas of North Kordofan, West Kordofan, South Kordofan, and North Darfur, noting that conditions in some communities have already reached "catastrophic" levels. Projections suggest that these emergency hunger levels will expand in the coming months, pushing the number of individuals requiring urgent humanitarian assistance to an estimated 22-23 million.

Despite the immense scale of human suffering and the perceived inadequacy of international efforts, Cooper maintains a hopeful stance regarding the possibility of ending the hostilities. She stated, "Today, in Berlin, I will call for the international community to join in a shared resolve: to secure a ceasefire and a diplomatic solution, to stop the suffering, and allow the people of Sudan to determine their own peaceful future."

However, the political momentum required to achieve such a resolution appears to have stalled. Sources reveal that discussions involving the "Quad nations" – led by the United States, alongside Egypt and Saudi Arabia (who support the Sudanese army), and the UAE (the principal patron of the RSF) – have failed to achieve any "meaningful progress." Relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, in particular, have reportedly soured, with acrimony emerging following clashes between their respective proxy forces in Yemen last December.

A glimmer of hope has emerged with the anticipated presence of Donald Trump’s political adviser on Africa, Massad Boulos, in Berlin, which has prompted speculation that diplomatic efforts could be revitalized. Nevertheless, observers attending the conference temper expectations, with one source remarking, “We don’t expect anything major, certainly not on the political level.”

In the absence of a significant diplomatic breakthrough, the consensus among experts is that Sudan’s conflict is poised to intensify, particularly within the Kordofan region, which remains the epicentre of the fighting. Paul Byars, Sudan director for the Danish Refugee Council, commented on the grim outlook: “I think there’ll be a worsening of the conflict in the Kordofan. Neither side will give up, which means they’ll keep taking and retaking territory.” The increasing sophistication and use of drone technology are also expected to escalate the violence, potentially negating the traditional lulls in fighting typically observed during Sudan's imminent rainy season. Tragically, the UN reported nearly 700 civilian fatalities from drone strikes in Sudan since January alone, underscoring the growing threat posed by this modern warfare tactic.