Experts are sounding a stark warning about a significant surge in cancer deaths globally, predicting an increase of up to 75 percent over the next two decades. This alarming forecast is attributed to a confluence of factors, including a rising and aging global population, coupled with an increase in unhealthy lifestyle choices.

Researchers from the US have highlighted that the worldwide incidence of new cancer cases has more than doubled since 1990, reaching 18.5 million in 2023. Concurrently, cancer-related deaths escalated by 74 percent, totaling 10.4 million. Looking ahead, projections indicate that new cases could soar further to 30.5 million by 2050, representing a 61 percent increase. The annual global cancer death toll is expected to rise by nearly 75 percent, reaching a staggering 18.6 million.

In response to these dire predictions, scientists are urgently calling on governments worldwide to take decisive action to address the global cancer burden. This includes confronting key risk factors such as obesity and smoking. They also advocate for the expansion of screening programs to facilitate early cancer detection, which is crucial for improving survival rates, and increasing funding for cancer control policies.

Michelle Mitchell, chief executive of Cancer Research UK, underscored the global rise in cancer cases and deaths, noting a similar trend in the UK with approximately 1,100 new cases diagnosed daily. She emphasized the critical need for a stronger international focus on prevention, citing HPV vaccination and robust tobacco control measures as essential. Mitchell highlighted smoking as the primary cause of cancer and death in the UK, urging the Tobacco and Vapes Bill to be a top legislative priority. Furthermore, she stressed the importance of the UK Government's forthcoming National Cancer Plan for England to secure adequate funding, staff, and resources for the NHS, ensuring timely diagnosis and treatment for all cancer patients.

Dr. Lisa Force, an assistant professor at the University of Washington and co-author of the study, lamented that despite the clear necessity for action, cancer control policies and their implementation remain underprioritized in global health. She pointed out the insufficient funding available to tackle this challenge in many regions. Achieving equitable cancer outcomes globally, Dr. Force asserted, demands greater efforts to diminish disparities in health service delivery, particularly regarding access to accurate and timely diagnosis, as well as quality treatment and supportive care.

The comprehensive study, published in The Lancet, meticulously analyzed cancer cases and death rates across 47 cancer types in 204 countries between 1990 and 2023. After adjusting for age-related demographic shifts, Lebanon was identified as experiencing the most significant increase in both cancer cases and deaths over the 33-year period, with an 80 percent rise. Equatorial Guinea and Laos followed, reporting cancer mortality increases of 72 percent and 55.8 percent, respectively. Conversely, the United Arab Emirates recorded the largest decrease in cases, a 56 percent drop, while Kazakhstan saw the greatest fall in deaths at 58.2 percent. The UK reported a 23.4 percent reduction in deaths, with the US and Australia also logging substantial drops of 32.5 percent and 33.2 percent, respectively.

The researchers also determined that breast cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide in 2023 when considering both sexes. Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer emerged as the leading cause of cancer deaths. Additionally, the study suggested that 42 percent of global cancer deaths were attributable to lifestyle factors, including smoking, unhealthy diets, elevated blood sugar, and exposure to environmental toxins. Tobacco use alone accounted for more than one-fifth (21 percent) of cancer deaths globally. In low-income countries, unsafe sex was identified as the predominant risk factor, contributing to 12.5 percent of all cancer deaths.

In the UK, over 400,000 individuals—approximately 1,000 per day—are diagnosed with cancer annually, with prostate, breast, bowel, and lung cancers being the most prevalent types. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly disrupted cancer care in 2020, leading to cancelled appointments and delayed diagnostic scans as the NHS prioritized pandemic response. Experts estimated that 40,000 cancers went undiagnosed during the first year of the pandemic alone. Currently, NHS cancer services continue to struggle with meeting their targets. Recent figures from July revealed that NHS England met only one of its three cancer diagnosis targets: 76.6 percent of 308,636 urgent GP referrals for cancer were diagnosed or ruled out within 28 days, slightly exceeding the 75 percent target. However, only 92.4 percent of patients nationally began treatment within 31 days of booking in July, falling short of the 96 percent goal. Furthermore, merely 69.2 percent of newly-diagnosed cancer patients referred for urgent treatment were seen within two months, significantly below the 85 percent target.