Poland is taking decisive action to bolster its eastern borders with a new, comprehensive set of anti-drone fortifications, planned for completion within two years. This urgent initiative comes in response to a significant incursion of Russian unmanned aerial combat vehicles into Polish airspace earlier this year, highlighting an escalating threat from its eastern neighbor. According to Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk, initial capabilities of the system are expected within roughly six months, with the full integration achieved over a 24-month period.

The proposed air defence systems represent an advanced upgrade, designed to integrate seamlessly with an older line of protection established a decade ago. Tomczyk detailed a multi-layered defence approach that will incorporate a variety of armaments, including machine guns, cannon, missiles, and sophisticated drone-jamming technologies. He acknowledged the practical challenges of employing certain heavy weaponry, such as multi-barrel machine guns, during peacetime due to safety concerns, indicating their primary role in extreme or wartime conditions.

A critical incident in September saw over a dozen suspected Russian drones breach Polish airspace, leading to widespread disruption, including airport closures and the scrambling of fighter jets. The attempts to intercept these drones also resulted in damage to ground buildings. Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski characterized these attacks, which involved unarmed drones, as a deliberate attempt by Russia “to test us without starting a war.” This event significantly accelerated Poland's existing plans to reinforce its eastern frontiers.

While recognizing that no anti-drone system can be entirely impenetrable against the kind of systematic and massive targeting witnessed in Ukraine, European nations on the eastern flank, including Poland, are intensifying efforts to modernize their defence capabilities to counter these new threats. The project is estimated to cost over €2 billion (£1.75 billion), with the majority of funding secured through European funds via the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) defence loan programme, supplemented by contributions from the national budget.

Poland has increasingly adopted a war footing during the almost four years of full-scale conflict in Ukraine. The country has observed a rise in sabotage and arson incidents, which Polish intelligence services attribute to Russian agencies. In response, the nation is preparing to train hundreds of thousands of its citizens in essential survival skills, while others are opting for voluntary military training. Beyond the anti-drone barrier, Poland is also constructing extensive fortifications along its land borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This broader initiative, known as the Eastern Shield, aims to prevent any future Russian invasion. Furthermore, special logistics hubs are being established in every border municipality to store equipment crucial for blocking the border, ensuring rapid deployment within hours.

Tomczyk articulated Poland's current geopolitical assessment, stating that “as long as Ukraine is defending itself and fighting Russia, Europe is not at risk of war in the conventional, strict sense of the word. What we will face instead are provocations and acts of sabotage.” However, he issued a stark warning: if Western nations permit Russia to triumph in Ukraine, it might not be long before the Kremlin turns its expansionist ambitions towards Europe. Poland has significantly escalated its defence spending, now allocating 4.7% of its GDP to defence—one of the highest rates within the European Union. This increase is driven by persistent concerns over Russian hybrid operations and potential military threats. Tomczyk underscored the prudence of this investment, contrasting it with Ukraine's current expenditure of approximately 40% of its GDP on the war, suggesting it is better to proactively raise defence spending than to face a much higher cost later.

Addressing skepticism regarding Russia's direct military designs on Poland, similar to its historical claims on Ukraine, Tomczyk cited Russia's long history of aggression and expansionism in Eastern Europe. He drew a parallel to George Orwell's “1984,” noting how narratives about the enemy can be quickly manipulated. He posited that these conquests primarily serve as a political tool for maintaining power within Russia, a recurring motif where the government needs to project strength and an unchallenged military. In this context, an external conflict becomes an internal instrument for Russian governance.