The United Kingdom is poised to begin the first deportations of small-boat migrants to France, under the new 'one in, one out' deal struck between Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron. These initial removal flights are anticipated to commence as early as today, marking a significant step in the UK's strategy to address illegal Channel crossings. The treaty, which became effective on August 7, has already seen more than 5,400 small-boat migrants arrive in the UK, highlighting the persistent challenge despite the new agreement.

Ministers are preparing for several flights this week, with sources indicating that migrants will be flown back on Air France commercial flights. Each flight is expected to carry as few as 10 migrants, with approximately four flights planned for this week. Removal notices have already been served on asylum seekers who arrived last month. The 'one in, one out' pilot scheme stipulates that for every migrant returned to France, one individual who applies and is approved can come to the UK, though the focus currently remains on removals. This practice of using commercial flights is standard for failed asylum seekers, as noted by former head of immigration enforcement, David Wood.

However, the deal has faced immediate criticism and predictions of complications from Conservative figures. Chris Philp, the Tory home affairs spokesman and former immigration minister, warned that Labour's plan would be "hit with a slew of last-minute legal challenges." He expressed concerns that the government is "too naive to realise this," citing the continued applicability of the Human Rights Act in immigration matters and the use of modern slavery claims as pretexts for staying in Britain. Philp argued that these factors would make it "very hard to remove people in practice" and advocated for the immediate deportation of every illegal immigrant upon arrival. This echoes a previous incident in June 2022, when a Conservative government's Rwanda asylum deal flight was grounded by a European Court of Human Rights injunction.

The scale of arrivals significantly overshadows the proposed returns. When the 'one in, one out' deal was announced in July, it was suggested that 50 migrants per week would be sent back to France. At this rate, fewer than 2,000 migrants would be returned before the agreement's expiry on June 11 next year. This is in stark contrast to the 31,026 migrants who have arrived so far this year, a 38% increase compared to the same period last year. Philp further highlighted that around 2,000 people crossed in the last 10 days alone, underscoring the limited deterrent effect of removing a "tiny handful" of individuals. He claimed that, by the government's own admission, 95% of those crossing would still be allowed to stay.

Operational challenges for these deportations are also being considered. David Wood suggested that the Home Office would likely "pick the migrants who are most compliant" to ensure the process goes smoothly and to prevent disruption. He identified potential issues if migrants become disruptive on flights or if knowledge of such disruptions spreads among those held in detention. A Home Office spokesperson reiterated the government's commitment, stating, "Under the new UK-France treaty, people crossing in small boats can now be detained and removed to France. We expect the first returns to take place imminently. Protecting the UK border is our top priority. We will do whatever it takes to restore order to secure our borders."

In a related development, the broader impact of immigration on public services has also come to light. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was informed that a "substantial" increase in immigration from non-EU countries is partly responsible for the existing backlog in driving tests. Minutes from a Driver and Vehicle Standards Agency (DVSA) meeting, obtained via a freedom of information request by the RAC Foundation, revealed discussions to make the Transport Secretary aware of the "scale of the challenge" to reduce waiting times, including consideration of "immigration options." Nationals from countries outside the EU with a full driving licence are permitted to drive in Britain for 12 months, after which they must pass a British test. At the end of August, 644,398 future driving tests were booked, indicating the significant demand on the system.