Exploiting Riches: Armed Groups Fuel Sahel Conflict with Lithium Scramble

Lithium, a critical mineral, is indispensable for the global transition to cleaner energy, powering rechargeable batteries in electric vehicles, smartphones, and laptops. Securing its supply has become a paramount economic and geopolitical priority as the International Energy Agency projects a significant increase in global lithium demand. While Chile, Australia, and China are currently the leading producers, Africa, particularly the Sahel region, is emerging as an increasingly vital source.

The Sahel, a vast semi-arid zone stretching across West to East Africa between the Sahara Desert to the north and the tropical savannas to the south, holds some of the continent's most promising lithium deposits, notably in Nigeria and Mali, with exploration expanding in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad. African rock already yields over 40,000 tonnes of lithium annually for international consumers, a figure estimated to surge to 500,000 tonnes by as early as 2030. However, this growth presents a significant challenge: armed groups across this region are finding new avenues to profit from the expanding lithium trade.

A recent study by Bradley A. Mortin, a researcher specializing in geopolitics and war studies, examined the intersection of expanding lithium extraction with conflict in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Chad, and Nigeria. The research reveals that nascent lithium industries are becoming deeply entangled in existing conflicts, insurgent activities, and cross-border smuggling, all facilitated by weak governance. Jihadist and criminal organizations, including Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), are exploiting the lack of oversight in lithium mining to generate revenue and expand their operations. Mortin warns that without strengthened governmental oversight, lithium risks becoming another resource that funds conflict rather than development, mirroring the historical patterns observed with valuable minerals like gold and diamonds in regions with weak governance.

For Sahelian governments, grappling with persistent economic challenges, lithium reserves attract much-needed investment and create jobs. However, whether these early gains translate into broader economic development hinges on crucial decisions regarding governance, regulation, and security. The very conditions that attract investors—abundant natural resources—also attract armed groups in regions already beset by violent insurgencies, organized crime, weak institutions, and limited government control over remote border areas. Historical examples abound across Africa: diamonds funded civil wars in Sierra Leone and Angola, gold mining supports armed groups across West Africa, and oil wealth has fueled corruption and political instability in Nigeria, Angola, and Libya. Mortin's research suggests lithium could be the latest iteration of this pattern.

Armed groups, like any organization, require funds to sustain their operations. They generate revenue by taxing miners, controlling access to mining sites, charging traders and transporters moving minerals through their territory, and even providing "security" in areas where government authority is absent. As lithium extraction expands, these established systems are adapting to the new commodity. Mortin's study, based on conflict databases, geological surveys, media reports, and publications from African and international organizations, compared differences in governance, the presence of artisanal mining, insurgent influence, and the accessibility of cross-border smuggling routes in the five studied countries. The findings indicate that each country's overall vulnerability to criminal and terrorist exploitation depends heavily on the strength of local institutions, border controls, and overall governance.

Specific country vulnerabilities highlighted include: Nigeria, where rapidly expanding, largely informal lithium mining lacks government oversight, leading to exploitation by criminal groups demanding protection payments and infiltrating supply chains; Mali, where armed groups already embedded in the country's gold economy are applying similar taxation and extortion models to lithium-producing regions, exacerbated by weak state institutions and ongoing conflict; Burkina Faso, where jihadist groups leverage informal mining networks to generate lithium revenue and enhance local influence, particularly in remote areas with limited government control; Niger, where the 2023 coup and subsequent political instability have weakened border controls, increasing the risk of mineral smuggling, with existing trafficking routes for gold and weapons being adapted for lithium; and Chad, where weak governance and corruption facilitate illicit cross-border trade, creating significant vulnerabilities for exploitation. In contrast, countries like Botswana, which effectively regulate mining and maintain control over mineral supply chains, ensure revenues support infrastructure, public services, and economic growth.

The global transition to cleaner energy necessitates increased lithium production, yet this rising demand incentivizes faster extraction, often outpacing governments' capacity to implement effective regulation and oversight. This critical juncture means the very batteries intended to reduce carbon emissions could inadvertently finance some of Africa's deadliest armed groups. The solution, therefore, lies in better governance of lithium.

Recommendations include: formalizing artisanal and small-scale miners through licensing, legal protections, and transparent markets; restoring state authority in mining regions; strengthening regional systems for tracking minerals across borders and sharing intelligence on illicit trade; and encouraging African governments to invest more in processing lithium domestically rather than exporting raw ore. These solutions, however, are not one-size-fits-all. Formalizing artisanal mining is most effective where governments control their territory. Intelligence sharing is crucial for cross-border trafficking routes. Domestic processing delivers long-term benefits in countries with stronger institutions and industrial capacity. These approaches are already being adopted elsewhere in Africa, with regional mineral traceability initiatives in the Great Lakes region and efforts by countries like Zimbabwe to promote domestic lithium processing.

Ultimately, Africa's vast lithium reserves hold the potential to power one of the century's defining technological transformations or become the latest chapter in a long history of resource-driven conflict. The future that unfolds will depend decisively on how these governments manage this vital resource.