Ethiopia and Eritrea are reportedly deploying troops and military equipment near Ethiopia's northern Tigray region, according to Bloomberg, citing regional diplomats. This military buildup significantly elevates the risk of renewed conflict in the volatile Horn of Africa. The escalation follows weeks of mounting tensions, primarily linked to unresolved disputes between Ethiopia's federal government and Tigrayan authorities, nearly three years after the signing of the Pretoria cessation of hostilities agreement. Additionally, the ongoing conflict in Sudan is contributing to regional instability and spillover effects.

Sources familiar with the situation informed Bloomberg that Ethiopian forces and equipment have been observed moving northward, including through Bahir Dar. Concurrently, Eritrean forces have reportedly deployed to areas within Tigray. Unverified footage circulating on social media platforms appears to corroborate these reports, showing military convoys transporting soldiers and heavy weaponry, underscoring the gravity of the deployments.

In parallel with these military movements, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed recently reiterated Ethiopia's long-standing ambition to secure sovereign access to the Red Sea. Speaking at a joint press conference in Addis Ababa with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Abiy emphasized that maritime access is crucial for overcoming logistical constraints and fostering economic growth. He described it as unjust for Ethiopia to remain a "geographic prisoner" and highlighted its criticality for the nation's development trajectory.

Eritrea, however, has dismissed these developments, characterizing Ethiopia's statements as threats of war. Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel told Bloomberg that any claims justifying conflict to obtain "sovereign access to the sea" lack international support or legitimacy. This exchange further highlights the deep-seated disagreements and mistrust between the two nations.

Analysts have voiced serious concerns regarding the potential for escalation. Kjetil Tronvoll, a scholar specializing in peace and conflict studies at Oslo New University College, warned that a "new big war" could erupt, depending on specific triggering factors. Magnus Taylor of the International Crisis Group noted that the current situation reflects a mounting escalation involving Ethiopia's federal government, further complicated by what he described as an alignment between Eritrea and certain elements within the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF).

Several disputes persist over the implementation of the 2022 peace agreement that formally ended the two-year civil war in Tigray. These include critical issues such as the return of displaced people, control of contested territories in western Tigray, and the federal government's demand for the full demobilization of TPLF forces. The lack of progress on these fronts continues to fuel instability and animosity.

Recent tensions have manifested in various forms, including reported skirmishes and drone activity in the region. Ethiopian Airlines temporarily suspended flights to Mekelle, Tigray's capital, and the region has experienced disruptions in fuel supplies. Furthermore, Eritrean state television broadcast a naval parade in Massawa last week, commemorating the anniversary of the city's capture in 1990, a move interpreted by some as a show of force amidst the rising regional tensions.

The International Crisis Group issued a stark warning in a recent report, cautioning that without coordinated regional and international efforts to de-escalate tensions, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Tigray risk sliding into a broader regional conflict. Such a conflict, they warned, could prove exceedingly difficult to contain, posing a significant threat to stability across the entire Horn of Africa.