Standard Chartered Bank, for much of the past year a prominent bull in institutional finance, has undergone a stark pivot in its cryptocurrency outlook. Its latest research note drastically slashes end-2026 price targets for major digital assets and warns of significant short-term drawdowns, indicating that the path to widespread crypto adoption is now fraught with increasing structural and macroeconomic hurdles.

The bank has significantly revised its cryptocurrency price forecasts, marking a substantial reality check. Its end-2026 Bitcoin target has been cut from $150,000 down to $100,000, and Ether from $7,500 to $4,000. Other notable reductions include Solana from $250 to $135, BNB from $1,755 to $1,050, and AVAX from $100 to $18. Moreover, the bank predicts near-term pain, with Bitcoin potentially sliding to $50,000 and Ether to $1,400 before any substantial rebound.

Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, explicitly stated the reasons for this tempered view. He highlighted that spot Bitcoin ETFs are experiencing outflows, with holdings down almost 100,000 BTC from their October peak. Kendrick pointed out that many recent buyers, who entered around a $90,000 average cost, are now facing considerable paper losses and are more likely to liquidate their positions than to average down, unlike the "diamond-handed HODLers" of previous market cycles.

The primary driver behind this bearish pivot appears to be a notable shift in the institutional adoption narrative. While the launch of spot ETFs in the U.S. provided a massive initial catalyst, the sustained and relentless inflows that many analysts anticipated have begun to plateau. Standard Chartered indicates that the initial hype cycle has concluded, and the market is now entering a digestion phase. Without new catalysts to drive retail and institutional FOMO, the bank foresees a lack of immediate buy-side pressure to sustain prices at all-time highs. Additionally, if global liquidity remains tight due to central banks maintaining higher interest rates for longer, risk assets like Bitcoin are typically the first to be sold off to cover margins elsewhere.

The downgrade for Ether is particularly severe, reflecting growing skepticism regarding Ethereum’s revenue model. As more activity transitions to Layer 2 scaling solutions, such as Arbitrum and Base, the mainnet experiences lower gas fees. This reduction in transaction costs effectively decreases the burn rate of ETH, creating a deflationary headwind for the asset. Furthermore, the delay or lack of clarity concerning a wider utility explosion for ETH has prompted analysts to re-evaluate its premium compared to Bitcoin.

Standard Chartered’s analysis also likely incorporates a shifting geopolitical and economic landscape. If the U.S. economy experiences a "bumpy landing" instead of a soft one, or if inflation proves more persistent than anticipated, the "digital gold" thesis for Bitcoin will be tested. In times of extreme uncertainty, even Bitcoin often trades more like a high-beta tech stock than a safe haven, which supports the $50,000 dip forecast.

Despite these immediate concerns, Standard Chartered has not completely abandoned its long-term bullish stance. The bank maintains its ambitious 2030 calls: half a million for Bitcoin and $40,000 for Ether. The underlying long-term story—driven by continued institutional adoption, clearer regulatory frameworks, and increasing actual utility—remains intact. However, the bank now believes the path to these long-term valuations has become significantly more challenging and volatile.

For traders, this revised outlook serves as a "yellow flag," signaling potential short-term capitulation risk within the market, but not a structural collapse. Standard Chartered’s caution aligns with the current bearish market sentiment, advising prudence in light of these new projections.