At the American Bakers Association’s 2025 Convention in Orlando, Florida, Anne-Marie Roerink, president of 210 Analytics, chaired a panel of experts to dissect the latest Bakery Playbooks.

The aim? To decode the latest marketplace trends and help bakers craft experiences that resonate with today’s consumers across generations and geographies.

What do sushi pizza, Korean doughnuts and TikTok have in common? According to Roerink and Tristan Kendall-Barros, VP of Marketing for Roche Bros Supermarkets, a US premium grocery chain, they’re all part of the rapidly evolving playbook for bakery success.

In a data-rich and wide-ranging conversation, the duo unpacks where the real growth lies - beyond the bun, beyond the glaze and definitely beyond what most Boomers would expect.

“One of the questions that I thought was just fascinating,” Roerink begins, “was: ‘is there such a thing as dessert pizza?‘”

If you’re Gen Z, the answer is a resounding yes - 55% say dessert pizza (think Nutella instead of tomato sauce, sprinkles versus olives) is absolutely a thing. Compare that to just 21% of Boomers. “Flipping something like that on its head is a real opportunity,” she contends.

Roerink adds TikTok is brimming with inspiration: “Pizza in a cup, pizza toast, pizza cones ... even sushi and ramen pizza. Who would’ve ever thought of that?”

Kendall-Barros sees this as more than just novelty. “Absolutely, we’re diving in gently. Our brand leans towards Boomers, but we’re trying to acquire a younger population. We’re experimenting with these seasonal twists that spark urgency and get people in the door.”

And there’s real business potential. “These are the kinds of trends that get customers talking and sharing,” she adds. “It turns a regular shopping trip into something memorable.”

The doughnut, too, is undergoing a makeover. While the classic glazed will always reign supreme, Roerink points out the rise of savoury options and global twists - Korean doughnuts, for example, or deep-fried doughballs stuffed with mince à la South Africa’s ‘vetkoek’.

“Texture is the trend here, too,” Roerink says. “People want that crunch or chewiness that surprises them. That’s what makes a doughnut stand out today.”

Even packaging makes a difference: “[UK retailer] Tesco brings out boxes of orange-glazed doughnuts for Halloween – there’s nothing special about the doughnuts themselves, but the box is fun.”

Limited time offers (LTOs) and seasonal innovations can make a significant impact. “People want to feel like they’re part of something happening now,” says Kendall-Barros. “We lean into that with our holiday specials and quick-turnaround seasonal lines.”

While inflation continues to pinch budgets, bakery remains one of the most permissible indulgences. “More than nine in 10 consumers say there are moments when they’ll spend a bit more,” says Roerink. “Especially around holidays, celebrations or if it’s for a brand they trust.”

Kendall-Barros says Roch Bros’ stores cater to that sentiment. “Our customers expect high quality. It’s about delivering that premium experience - from the packaging to the full-service bakery counter. That’s when they feel the splurge is worth it.”

Roerink warns though: “When people spend more, the product has to truly deliver. Every dollar has to be a dollar consumed. No room for waste.”

And the most effective trigger? “We’ve seen packaging that looks giftable really nudge customers into premium buys,” Kendall-Barros adds. “It’s the psychology of treating yourself or someone else.”

One of the trickiest balancing acts? Catering to wildly different generational tastes. “Younger consumers want bold, global flavours. Boomers want the familiar,” says Roerink.

The trick, says Kendall-Barros, is channel selection. “On social media, we use micro-influencers to promote bold flavours. We highlight both ends of the spectrum through email and broadcast.”

Product-wise, it’s all about the twist. “Have the traditional coffee cake but also offer a seasonal spin. That way, you innovate without alienating your core customer.”

Roerink also advises keeping store data in mind: “Look at who shops your store and why. That’ll tell you whether you need more matcha-lavender doughnuts or just a top-tier glazed.”

In a world of portion control, GLP-1 drugs and ultra-processed foods (UPFs), both experts are seeing big opportunities in smaller sizes.

“Mini cupcakes, mini doughnuts, sliders are resonating,” says Roerink. “They feel indulgent but manageable. And they’re more affordable.”

Kendall-Barros agrees: “Right-sizing helps everyone - those watching calories or those watching their wallets. We’re even exploring how to label GLP-1-friendly portions on shelf.”

On the flip side? Big still works. “I was in a store with my kids and they spotted a Texas-sized doughnut,” laughs Roerink. “It was a full pound! We cut it into four and had it for breakfast. Totally unplanned. But it created a memory.”

“Portion variety gives you permission to play,” says Kendall-Barros. “And it keeps the category fresh.”

With egg prices in flux in the US, bakeries are being forced to adapt. Roerink observes a dual reaction: “People are still buying eggs - even with limits in some stores - but on social media, there’s curiosity about baking without them. Applesauce, avocado, even soda - people are experimenting.”

But interestingly, “most shoppers don’t connect the egg inflation with the cookies or baked goods they’re buying. Unless it’s a specialty store, it kind of flies under the radar.”

Kendall-Barros adds that while her stores limited egg purchases, sales haven’t dropped. “We raised prices a bit, but not as much as competitors. And it hasn’t slowed demand in bakery yet. “It’s about perception. As long as the product still feels worth the price, customers accept the change.”

From AI to algorithmic snacks, bakeries now need to be as digitally savvy as they are dough-smart.

Kendall-Barros shares that her team tracks trends through multiple channels: “We watch TikTok, review end-of-year forecasts and pay attention to what’s hot in restaurants. Then we ask - how can we bring that into grocery, affordably? It’s a goldmine for upscale bakery inspiration.”

The retail group is even leveraging AI for communication. “It helps with crafting copy and streamlining marketing. It’s not replacing creativity – it’s helping us stay agile.”

Roerink says agility isn’t just about reacting. “It’s anticipating demand before the customer even knows what they want. There’s a TikTok trend around loaded baked potatoes. That’s not something you’d associate with 25-year-olds, but now they’re piling them high with wild toppings. That’s a retail opportunity. Take inspiration from viral food and turn it into a bakery LTO.”

So what flavours and textures are rising?

“Korean flavours are huge,” says Roerink. “We’ve seen spicy-sweet (swicy) pairings trend for a while and now floral is having a moment. Brown butter is also trending - that rich, indulgent note is showing up everywhere. And textures - snappy, crunchy, surprising textures - are trending across food.”

Adds Kendall-Baros, “We’re playing with lychee, rose and yuzu in mousse formats. It’s that sweet spot between familiar and unexpected.”

However, Roerink advises, “These innovations should complement your core line, not replace it. It’s curiosity layered on reliability.”

Both experts agree: data is useless unless you act on it.

Kendall-Barros says what she wants from bakery partners is “support to help us help you. Give us marketing assets - photos, lifestyle images, benefit callouts - so we can tell the story in our stores.”

Roerink encourages bakers to narrow their focus. “Gone are the days of being a mile wide and an inch deep. Specialise. Understand your distribution. Know your consumer. And use that insight to be proactive.”

“Category managers don’t have time to dig deep,” she adds. “So if bakers show up with actionable insights, they’ll always win the meeting.”

“Pastel cupcakes for Easter, orange doughnuts for Halloween - even that packaging makes a difference,” says Roerink. “There are so many other moments we can own. Graduations, workplace wins, or even meme-worthy moments from social media.”

“We’re leaning hard into brunch this Easter,” says Kendall-Barros. “Quiches, bagels, lemon pie – it’s not just about ham dinner anymore. The meal occasion is expanding and bakery is part of that.”

“Think ‘everyday elevated,‘” Roerink sums up. “Small celebrations are a sweet spot for bakery impulse buys.”

So what about better-for-you claims?

“Plant-based is losing steam,” says Roerink. “Plant-based milks are tanking. Plant-based meats have been down double digits for years.

“But younger shoppers still believe in a better-for-you cookie - especially if it includes real ingredients. That word ‘real’ is powerful.”

“It’s not about removing indulgence,” adds Kendall-Barros. “It’s about adding authenticity.”

When asked what advice they’d give to bakers looking to make a mark, Kendall-Barros is clear: “Be aware of who your customer is. Use the data. And give us the tools to market your product well.”

Roerink adds: “Today, external forces shape our destiny more than ever. But that’s why it’s vital to know the consumer, inside and out. Portion sizes, unexpected flavours, bold textures, and limited time offers - they all drive that impulse buy. And in this environment, every purchase counts.”

So, if you want your bakery brand to rise, it’s no longer enough to master flour and sugar - you need to sweet-talk social media, plate up data-driven innovation and serve a slice of joy with every bite.