Dr. Sheriff Omotayo Oyewopo, a political science lecturer at the University of Jos, said that while ADC currently lacks presence at the state level, the situation could change before 2027.
“It is logical that those who are in power would say they are secured in their power and those who want to take power would say they have a chance,” he said. “But if you look around the state, the ADC as a new party is not on the ground, even though they have just formed the party. We have to give them some time to put their house together and mobilise their members.”
“As it is now, you can only see them at the national level. That is where their leaders are. They don’t have structures anywhere,” he added.
“If an election were to be held today in Plateau, the contest would only be between PDP and APC because they are already in existence. But in politics, even a week is a long time. However, between now and 2027, they still have time to make their presence felt and convince people to join them in the state,” Oyewopo concluded.
Some analysts also argue that ADC’s prospects may hinge on two key factors: financing and post-primary crises within the PDP and the APC.
Analysts note that, like elections everywhere, contests in Plateau require substantial funding, and so far, there is little evidence that the ADC possesses the financial muscle to campaign effectively across all 17 local government areas, which also include hard-to-reach LGAs because of insecurity. As such, the party may ultimately have to rely on post-primary discontent in the major parties, hoping that aggrieved aspirants defect to its platform and bolster the coalition’s relevance.
They stress that the Labour Party’s surprise performance in 2023 should serve as a reminder that the ADC coalition, still with nearly two years before the election, cannot be casually dismissed. However, whether ADC can replicate or build upon LP’s momentum will depend largely on its ability to broaden its appeal through high-profile endorsements and strategically position itself to benefit from defections or internal crises within the two dominant parties.
