Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham has strongly denied claims that he was informed he would be blocked from standing as an MP for Labour in the upcoming Gorton and Denton by-election. ITV political editor Robert Peston reported that sources close to the Prime Minister asserted Burnham was told 'in no uncertain terms' that his request to the Labour National Executive Committee (NEC) to stand would be 'repulsed'. Peston further suggested that Burnham applied knowing the outcome, interpreting his application as an attempt to destabilize Keir Starmer rather than to counter the Reform party. Burnham, however, unequivocally dismissed these reports as 'simply untrue', reiterating that he had discussions with senior party figures and Number 10 over the weekend regarding the pros and cons of his potential candidacy, but received no definitive message of being blocked, citing the NEC's supposed independence.

This political drama, stemming from the scuppering of Andy Burnham’s potential return to Westminster, has shifted focus to other prospective successors to Keir Starmer, bringing renewed scrutiny to Angela Rayner. Starmer’s former number two and housing secretary has maintained a quiet loyalty since her resignation nearly five months ago, following an inadvertent underpayment of stamp duty. Rayner has occasionally resurfaced to advocate for policy changes, particularly on workers’ rights legislation and the leasehold system, areas she considers her legacies.

It is widely known that Angela Rayner desires a return to cabinet, a move that Keir Starmer has publicly stated he would welcome. Despite being an 'unlikely duo', senior Downing Street sources confirm they remain in touch and on good terms, sharing a view that they form an effective political team, although some residual mistrust on Rayner’s part towards certain individuals around the Prime Minister persists. Her immediate return to cabinet is not anticipated, primarily due to the lack of current vacancies following Starmer's thorough cabinet reshuffle post-Rayner's departure. The earliest possible timing for such a move is mooted for after May’s Scottish, Welsh, and local English elections.

Another significant factor delaying Rayner’s return is an ongoing investigation by HMRC into her tax underpayment. While the investigation could result in a fine, a reprimand, or no action at all, none of these outcomes are expected to ultimately block her return to cabinet. Nevertheless, the waiting period for the tax authorities' response is a source of deep frustration for Rayner and her team.

Beyond her current status, allies of Rayner indicate that while she does not intend to openly challenge Starmer, she would 'definitely compete for the top job' if a challenge were to arise or if Starmer were to step down. She is reportedly frustrated by consistent reports linking her to being merely a deputy or a left-leaning ideological counterweight in someone else’s potential leadership bid, perceiving these narratives as once again positioning her as 'second banana' to a man. A senior Labour figure quoted Rayner as saying, “Angela says she took the scars for Jeremy Corbyn, she took the scars for Keir Starmer, and so the next time she takes the scars it will be for herself.”

Rayner is also aware that she can be a divisive figure among some voters. Any future leadership bid from her would likely be framed around leading a team, with a key role for a 'steady, understated chancellor' such as John Healey or Pat McFadden. With most of her legislative priorities nearing completion in parliament, Rayner is contemplating the future direction she would want Labour to take, concluding that changes in policy, as well as leadership, would be necessary. A potential 'hiccup' sometimes raised in connection with a Rayner candidacy is her partner, Sam Tarry, a former Labour MP whose deselection was seen by him as unfair and orchestrated by Wes Streeting. Some observers worry that such internal Labour divisions could negatively impact Rayner by association. Her team, for their part, desires more privacy regarding both her relationship and her children.

In terms of potential backing for Rayner in a leadership contest, she would hope to gain support from the recently revived soft-left Tribune caucus, particularly among female MPs. However, the extent of her base remains uncertain, and her path to leadership is deeply unclear. What does seem certain is that any attempt by figures like Wes Streeting to engineer a 'coronation' for another candidate would instead face a significant battle. Meanwhile, in the Gorton and Denton by-election, five Greater Manchester councillors have been long-listed as Labour candidates. Reform UK has announced Matt Goodwin as its candidate, though a controversy arose when Reform MP Lee Anderson shared images of campaigning outside a venue that was found to be located outside the Gorton and Denton constituency, in Angela Rayner's Ashton-under-Lyne constituency.