The much-anticipated coalition of the Nigerian political opposition berthed last week aboard a relatively old vessel when a group of prominent politicians officially unveiled the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their platform for the 2027 General Election at a press conference in Abuja.

However, unlike in the previous experiments that Nigerians were familiar with from the First Republic (1960-1966), this coalition is not about parties. It involves politicians who lost control or influence in the major opposition parties or the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

It has been called the anti-Tinubu coalition because it was forged by the president’s old political opponents from the opposition parties and new ones from his party and political family. A few of them want to be president in 2027, while the others just want to see Mr Tinubu out of the office.

As it stands, the coalition will not only challenge the ruling APC in the coming elections, but it will also have the main opposition parties, such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Labour Party (LP), the New Nigerian Peoples’ Party (NNPP) and the All-Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), in its cross hairs. Those three opposition parties have elected governors and federal and state lawmakers in their ranks, almost all of whom have so far stayed away from the coalition or its current party flag.

The ADC is not new as a vehicle for migrating politicians. In 2018, a coalition led by former President Olusegun Obasanjo adopted the then 13-year-old party as its platform to challenge the then two dominant parties, the ruling APC and the PDP, in the 2019 elections. However, that voyage foundered within a few months, and the ADC resumed hibernation on the political fringe. Judging by the calibre of the current coalition’s promoters and their supporters’ enthusiasm, the ADC’s time at the centre of political activities has truly arrived.

The principal promoters of the coalition are former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who flew the PDP flag in the last two presidential elections, and Peter Obi, Atiku’s running mate in 2019 and the LP candidate in 2023. Others include Rotimi Ameachi, Nasir El-Rufai, and Rauf Aregbesola, all of whom were former two-term governors and federal ministers.

Behind that front column are other former two-term governors like Sule Lamido of Jigawa, Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto, Babangida Aliyu of Niger, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Gabriel Suswan of Benue, Sam Egwu of Ebonyi, and Liyel Imoke of Cross River. There are also former Senate President David Mark, named the party’s interim chairman, and former ministers like Abubakar Malami, Bolaji Abdullahi, and Solomon Dalung. Mr Abdullahi is the party’s spokesperson.

The politicians chose to regroup for two principal reasons. First, the opposition cannot beat President Bola Tinubu when their parties are running on separate lanes. The results of the 2023 presidential election indicate that they could have done it had the two leading opponents of President Tinubu joined forces. Two years ago, the president was elected with just 37 per cent of the vote while the opposition supporters were divided between Atiku, who got 29 per cent, and Mr Obi with 25 per cent. The economic hardship caused by President Tinubu’s bold economic reforms makes him look even more vulnerable.

Second, the PDP and LP situations mean Atiku and Mr Obi cannot pick either party’s ticket for 2027 or lead the two parties to merge into a new one. The PDP is yet to recover from its post-2022 presidential primary crisis, while the LP has broken into three factions. All this is happening while the ruling party is poaching governors and federal lawmakers from the two parties and has endorsed President Tinubu as its candidate almost two years before the presidential election.

So, how far can the coalition go now that it has its party?

While the show of force is impressive, what we have seen so far does not indicate a seismic political development. It does not compare to the emergence of the APC in 2013, when the major opposition parties and a faction of the ruling PDP merged to produce a new party.

Aside from Atiku and Obi, you may struggle to list the electoral assets in this coalition. The former governors, ministers and party officials are reappearing from the margins, as many did not contest or lead their parties to win an election in the last two electoral cycles. David Mark, 77, was recalled from retirement. Mr Lamido’s PDP has been in opposition in Jigawa since his governorship tenure ended 10 years ago. Mr Tambuwal lost his state in 2023 as a sitting governor. The APC did not win anything in Rivers for the eight years that Mr Amaechi was its leader, despite being the director-general of Mr Buhari’s presidential campaign as a sitting governor and super minister.

In its present composition, the coalition will also struggle to raise a war chest. Among them, only Atiku is famed for having a deep pocket and a knack for spending his money on politics. Generally, Nigerian politicians depend on the public purse to finance political activities and elections, which is why incumbents have the upper hand. Most of these coalition leaders have been out of government for many years and do not have incumbent officeholders with them yet. The coalition must build party structures at the state, local government and ward levels before the polls and make significant expenditures during the elections. If Atiku does not get the ticket, will he commit his wealth to the cause of the coalition? And how will his opponents react if he leverages his money to take the ticket?

In 2013, the PDP split over the agitation for the return of the presidency to the North after six years of Goodluck Jonathan’s presidency. The clamour was in line with the principle of power rotation enshrined in the party’s constitution. The region had held the office for less than three years when President Umaru Yar’Adua died. That agitation benefited the newly formed APC and was cited by many in the n-PDP who deserted to join the APC. This coalition seems set to swim against that convention’s tide by opening its presidential primary to northern aspirants. Atiku is associated with the breach of that convention in the PDP in 2022 when he took the party’s ticket after eight years of the Buhari presidency. His supporters and many other northern members are already canvassing for an open primary to enable the ADC to produce a formidable candidate against Mr Tinubu. Atiku always happens to win such contests. Will the coalition manage the consequences better than the PDP did in 2023?

The coalition has yet to espouse a coherent vision around which to communicate with voters. In 2013, the APC branded President Jonathan’s government clueless and the ruling PDP, after 16 years in power, the symbol of misgovernance and corruption. The new party effectively projected a vision of change, although it abandoned it as soon as it assumed power.

On the Channels Television programme, Mr Amaechi asked Nigerians if they are better off than they were two years ago. The same question helped Bill Clinton defeat the first President George Bush in the 1992 American presidential election. But the rhetoric sounded flat in the mouth of someone who was in government for 24 of the past 26 years and served in an administration not highly rated for economic management. The opposition does not sound credible when they decry the impact of the key policies of the Tinubu government because they promised the same policies in 2023. They have to find alternative policies or ways to mitigate the adverse effects of the ones they agreed with in 2023.

Atiku and Mr Obi rowing the same boat is a tantalising prospect for the coalition. However, it is delusional to project them to retain the combined 54 per cent of the vote they got in 2023 if they run in 2027 as a ticket.

Mr Obi animated the LP and earned it its votes in 2023 through his popularity and the online media campaign of his supporters in the Obidient Movement. However, many factors contributed to that feat that may have now diffused.

On his part, Atiku benefited more from the platform he ran on. His showing was poor in 2007 when he flew the flag of a new party, the Action Congress. The strength of the PDP’s administrative structure and support base across Nigeria transformed his races in 2019 and 2023. So, how much of the support can he take away with him from the PDP? No state governor or lawmaker has officially followed him to the ADC. Not even his state governor, Ahmadu Fintiri. Is it the sign of waning influence or a strategic decision that they stay back in the PDP yet?

Still, the coalition can reasonably be upbeat about the prospects of an Atiku/Obi joint ticket. The last time they ran together, Atiku had the best showing in his 32 years of chasing the presidency. Also, the PDP had its best performance since 2011. Running against the sitting President Muhammadu Buhari, Atiku polled over 11 million votes (41 per cent) and emerged victorious in 17 states and the Federal Capital Territory. In 2023, Atiku and the PDP’s share of the presidential vote dropped sharply to 29 per cent, while Mr Obi polled 25 per cent on a marginal party’s ticket.

However, their running together may depend on whether Mr Obi wants to remain as Atiku’s sidekick.

Mr Obi deferred to Atiku at their Wednesday gathering and always did so wherever they had been together in public, demonstrating a deep respect for the former vice president. During the previous electioneering, each aimed his gun at the ruling party candidate. Even when Mr Obi claimed victory and took his case before the courts, he curiously never disputed Atiku’s claim to have won the same election. Atiku, too, has never criticised Mr Obi in public despite knowing he took away many votes that could have gone to him.

Their warm relationship when working together or apart is easy to understand. Atiku thrust the former Anambra governor onto the national stage when he picked him as running mate in 2018. That choice angered many party leaders from the zone who considered Mr Obi not just an outsider but an adversary. Mr Obi had only a few years before defected from the All-Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), a party he founded with the late Biafra warlord, Emeka Odumegwu-Ojukwu, to counter the dominance of the PDP in the South-east. Mr Obi’s governorship began the dismantling of the PDP hegemony in the region. That local antagonism to Mr Obi might have influenced Atiku’s decision to pick someone else in 2022. Mr Obi left the PDP just before the party’s primaries, where he was a contestant, to run on his own steam in the LP.

If they run together again and win in 2027, Mr Obi would expect the boss to endorse him as his successor. So why did he send that memo to the coalition committing himself to a single term if elected?

According to whispers we have heard since the coalition talks began, the single-term proposal belongs to 78-year-old Atiku. It was an apologia for again standing against the power rotation principle. It was also part of his supporters’ overtures to tease Mr Obi into that joint ticket with Atiku. Atiku will be 84 by the 2031 poll anyway.

Therefore, was Mr Obi’s memo a veiled criticism of Atiku’s stand on zoning and rejection of the vice presidency carrot? Or is it an announcement that Atiku has ended his life-long pursuit and whispered his support into Mr Obi’s ears? If the latter is the case, is the coast thus clear for Mr Obi, or a competitive presidential primary?

At least one other candidate has thrown his hat into the ring. Mr Amaechi said on Channel Television’s Politics Today programme that he would run and is prepared to serve one term, too. Atiku had claimed that he participated in the 2022 PDP primary because the party rejected his plea that the ticket be zoned to the only southern region yet to produce a president – the South-east. Mr Amaechi’s interest may, advertently or inadvertently, justify Atiku’s participation.

Mr Amaechi’s anger with the APC seemed to be over Mr Buhari allowing Tinubu, an outsider in that APC government, to beat him to the party’s presidential ticket. So, how would he react if Atiku or Mr Obi beat him again?

One person seemed sure Atiku would run in the primary. Datti Baba-Ahmed, Mr Obi’s running mate in 2023, said in a Daily Trust newspaper interview last week and repeated it on an Arise Television programme on Friday that Atiku would deploy his formula for winning primaries in the ADC. If that formula decides the coalition candidate, Mr Baba-Ahmed may not be too bothered. The university proprietor escorted Mr Obi into the ADC but has retained his LP card. He may welcome him back there or move with him to another party.