The 98th Academy Awards nominations have sparked considerable discussion, featuring both expected selections and notable surprises, particularly within the highly coveted Best Picture category. While some unexpected contenders, such as F1, received nominations, the primary focus has centered on a fierce two-way race for Best Picture between 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners'. Collider's analysis, based on various calculations, positions 'One Battle After Another' as the most probable recipient of the prestigious award.

'One Battle After Another' presents a compelling narrative centered on revolution and its profound costs, a theme resonating deeply in contemporary times. The film boasts a truly star-studded ensemble cast, featuring acclaimed actors like Leonardo DiCaprio, Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor. Directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, a filmmaker known for crafting movies that frequently attract Oscar attention and nominations for his previous works, the film benefits from a proven track record of appealing to Academy voters. However, the most significant factor contributing to 'One Battle After Another's' frontrunner status is its remarkable performance on the broader awards circuit.

The film's Oscar prospects have significantly brightened following two major victories at other prestigious ceremonies. It clinched the Best Picture award at the Critics' Choice Awards and also secured the Best Picture - Comedy or Musical honor at the Golden Globe Awards. This dual success demonstrates its broad appeal, impressing both the high-prestige voters, akin to the Academy, and the more crowd-pleasing sensibilities often recognized by the Golden Globes. Winning over such a diverse range of awards voters underscores its strong momentum.

A critical test for 'One Battle After Another' looms with the British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) ceremony, scheduled for February 22. 'One Battle After Another' has garnered an impressive 14 BAFTA nominations, with 'Sinners' closely trailing with 13. A win for 'One Battle After Another' in the Best Film category at BAFTA would likely make its momentum towards an Oscar win nearly unstoppable, drawing parallels to the success of 'Oppenheimer', which dominated its award season and secured multiple Oscars, including Best Director for Christopher Nolan.

Despite 'One Battle After Another' being the current favorite, Ryan Coogler's horror epic 'Sinners' remains a formidable challenger, hot on its heels. 'Sinners' is also gaining recognition on both popular and prestige fronts, accumulating its own set of award nominations. Upcoming ceremonies like the Directors Guild Awards, the Screen Actors' Guild Awards in March, and especially the Producers Guild Awards (PGA) at the end of February, could prove pivotal. A significant trend indicates that the film winning Best Picture at the PGA often goes on to win the Best Picture Oscar, a pattern observed with films such as 'The Shape of Water', 'Everything Everywhere All at Once', and 'Oppenheimer'. Should 'One Battle After Another' win the PGA Best Picture award, its path to an Oscar would be all but certain. Conversely, a victory for 'Sinners' at the PGA would represent an incredible upset, validating its record-breaking Oscar nominations. While the numbers currently favor 'One Battle After Another', the race is undeniably close.

'One Battle After Another' is an R-rated action crime thriller, released on September 26, 2025, with a runtime of 162 minutes. It is directed by Paul Thomas Anderson, who also co-wrote the script with Thomas Pynchon. The film is produced by Adam Somner, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Sara Murphy, and stars Leonardo DiCaprio as Bob Ferguson and Sean Penn as Col. Steven J. Lockjaw. Both 'One Battle After Another' and 'Sinners' are available to stream on HBO Max. The 98th Academy Awards will be broadcast live on ABC and streamed on Hulu on Sunday, March 15, 2026.