The UK's Covid Inquiry has delivered a damning verdict on the government's pandemic response, concluding that a "toxic and chaotic culture" at the heart of Government led to a strategy that was "too little, too late." Baroness Hallett, the Inquiry's chair, stated that lockdowns, including the first one on March 23, 2020, could have been "avoided entirely" or significantly shortened if ministers had reacted more swiftly to the emerging viral threat. She specifically highlighted that implementing measures such as contact tracing, self-isolation, and face coverings before March 16, 2020, might have negated the need for a lockdown altogether. Modelling presented to the Inquiry suggested that an earlier lockdown, even by just a week, could have resulted in approximately 23,000 fewer deaths in England during the first wave, reducing the toll by 48 percent.

The Inquiry's extensive 760-page report, based on 180,000 documents and testimonies from 166 witnesses, also sharply criticized key figures. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson was deemed too slow, failing to appreciate the emergency's demand for prime ministerial leadership sooner. Sir Christopher Wormald, then leading the health department, was found to have presided over "misleading assurances" about the UK's preparedness and failed to correct "overenthusiastic" Health Secretary Matt Hancock's false promises regarding crisis control. Furthermore, the report underscored that children were not adequately prioritized; while most were not at serious direct risk from Covid, they "suffered greatly" from school closures and stay-at-home requirements, with the government unprepared for the "sudden and enormous task" of educating them at home.

Amidst the revelations of governmental failings, figures analyzed by the Daily Mail reveal how the UK's Covid death toll compared internationally using "excess deaths." This metric, defined as deaths above the average for the same period in previous years, is considered the most consistent way to compare pandemic fatalities due to varying official Covid data logging across countries. Between January 2020 and May 2023, when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared Covid no longer a public health emergency, the UK recorded an extra 346 deaths per 100,000 people, placing it 65th worst out of 237 countries. In comparison, the US was worse at 51st (397 deaths), and Bulgaria topped the grim list at 1st (1,048 excess deaths). More favorably, Australia reported 120 extra deaths (193rd), Spain 339 (66th), France 222 (122nd), Ireland 186 (138th), and Sweden 185 (139th). New Zealand (10 extra deaths, 224th) and Luxembourg (25 extra deaths, 229th) were among the most successful in minimizing excess deaths.

In stark contrast to the UK's approach, Sweden famously adopted an anti-lockdown strategy, heavily influenced by its then-state epidemiologist, Dr. Anders Tegnell. In his explosive memoir, "Tankar Efter en Pandemi," translated into English, Dr. Tegnell argued that eliminating Covid was "impossible" and that prolonged societal shutdowns were not feasible. Sweden's strategy, defying global consensus, shunned strict lockdowns and mask mandates, instead relying on residents' "common sense" and a lighter-touch approach. Dr. Tegnell considered proposals for strict stay-at-home orders, akin to those in Britain, as "sloppy" judgment, arguing that imposing tight restrictions without considering how to responsibly ease them was ill-conceived, especially given pandemics often last for years.

Sweden's Public Health Agency advised social distancing throughout the pandemic, with masks only recommended on public transport at certain stages, never mandatory. Bars and restaurants remained open with restricted hours and alcohol bans after specific times during peak waves. Stricter measures included a ban on visits to elderly care homes and limits on public gatherings. Crucially, under Sweden's constitution, politicians cannot interfere with the agency's daily operations or decisions. The agency itself lacked authority to pass laws, only providing guidelines. Dr. Tegnell emphasized that under Swedish law, measures must be proportionate to the risk, and he believed people could largely manage the situation themselves. This approach earned him a cult following, though he also faced criticism, including from King Carl XVI Gustaf, for failing to restrict the virus's spread, particularly among the vulnerable, and for lagging testing efforts.

Despite initial doomsday warnings, an analysis of excess death figures up to May 2023 suggests Sweden fared better than the UK, logging 185 deaths per 100,000 people (139th worst) compared to the UK's 346 deaths (65th worst). However, its Scandinavian counterparts like Iceland (93 excess deaths, 211th) and Norway (156 extra deaths, 162nd), which implemented stricter curbs, reported fewer fatalities. An independent Swedish National Commission in February 2022 concluded that while Dr. Tegnell's voluntary measures were appropriate and maintained personal freedom, more extensive measures should have been taken earlier, particularly during the first wave. Economically, Sweden's economy rebounded faster than any other in Europe, according to the OECD, partly due to its pandemic response and its reliance on industry rather than a smaller services sector.

The UK Covid Inquiry further highlighted specific policy failures, such as the 'Eat Out to Help Out' scheme launched by then-Chancellor Rishi Sunak in August 2020. This initiative, designed to boost the hospitality industry, was "devised in the absence of any scientific advice" and "undermined public health messaging," contributing to a spike in cases that led to the UK's second national lockdown. Baroness Hallett condemned February 2020 as a "lost month" where crucial preparations could have saved tens of thousands of lives, deeming the overall lack of urgency in government "inexcusable." She concluded that had the UK been better prepared, fewer lives would have been lost, socio-economic costs would have been substantially reduced, and political decisions would have been far more straightforward.

The Inquiry’s final sobering reflection noted that lockdowns, while saving lives, left "lasting scars on society and the economy," disrupting ordinary childhoods, delaying diagnoses and treatment for other health conditions, and exacerbating inequalities. Dr. Tegnell, reflecting on his "precautionary principle" of "not doing too much," also asserted in an April 2020 interview that closing borders and schools was "meaningless at this stage" and detrimental to the psychiatric and physical health of the younger generation, echoing the UK Inquiry's concerns about children not being prioritized.