Good morning from Brussels. The situation in Iran is poised for a critical development as the deadline set by US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expires at 8 pm in Washington (4 am CET). Trump has starkly threatened that if the Strait is not reopened, the US military will strike Iran's power plants, bridges, and other infrastructure, asserting he is 'not at all' concerned about committing possible war crimes. He vowed to decimate every bridge and power plant, sending Iran 'back to the Stone Ages' and claiming, 'The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.'

The European Union has urged maximum restraint, with European Commission spokesperson Anitta Hipper stating, 'Diplomacy is the answer,' and rejecting threats against critical civilian infrastructure due to the risk of impacting millions and leading to dangerous escalation. European Council President António Costa reinforced this, calling such attacks 'illegal and unacceptable,' and warning that escalation would not achieve peace. Iran, for its part, has vehemently rejected a 45-day ceasefire proposal, demanding a definitive end to the war with guarantees against future attacks. Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warned of hitting civilian targets if the US strikes its infrastructure, stating such efforts are 'incompatible with ultimatums and threats to commit war crimes.'

Experts and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have warned of a 'humanitarian catastrophe' if Trump's threats materialize, leading to widespread food and water scarcity, disease, and societal collapse. The destruction of power plants, in particular, could cripple essential services for Iran's 90 million civilians, with the country already facing a severe water crisis due to drought and mismanagement. Military analysts, such as Philip Ingram, predict catastrophic global consequences, including Iranian retaliation against Middle Eastern oil and gas infrastructure, water desalination plants, and a significant rise in terror tactics targeting NATO nations, including the UK, potentially even with ballistic missiles to locations like Diego Garcia and British sovereign bases in Cyprus. The UAE has already reported its air defenses engaging Iranian drones and missiles, indicating an active conflict.

The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for a fifth of the world's daily oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, has already caused Brent crude to surge to $111 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate to $115 per barrel, its highest level in a month. This disruption has prompted fears of global financial Armageddon, with the IMF warning that the current Middle East oil crisis is more serious than the combined crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022. Emerging economies are particularly vulnerable to higher interest rates and currency shocks due to their reliance on volatile market investors like hedge funds, according to the IMF's analysis from its upcoming Global Financial Stability Report.

The head of the UN nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, expressed serious concern over attacks near Iran's Bushehr atomic power plant, emphasizing the risk of a severe radiological accident, with one strike hitting just 246 feet from the plant perimeter. Russia, which aids in the plant's operation, echoed these concerns, calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities. In a related development, Israel issued a chilling warning to Iranians to avoid trains and railway lines until 9 pm, Tehran time, several hours before Trump's deadline. Additionally, Lebanon's National News Agency reported Israeli forces shelling the Lebanese town of Aynata with phosphorus munitions.

In a separate but related incident, the Israeli consulate in Istanbul was attacked by three individuals in Istanbul's financial district. A gun battle ensued for approximately ten minutes, resulting in one assailant killed and two police officers wounded. Turkish Interior Minister Mustafa Çiftçi stated that one attacker was linked to 'an organisation that exploits religion,' and two of the three were identified as brothers. Local media reported no Israeli diplomats were stationed in Turkey at the time.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has offered Kyiv's assistance to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, drawing on Ukraine's experience with the Black Sea Grain Corridor. Zelenskyy emphasized that such a feat would require international cooperation, including military convoys and electronic warfare networks. He also visited Syria, meeting with interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, to pledge greater security cooperation and exchange drone expertise for air defense missiles, aiming to deepen ties across the Middle East. Meanwhile, in Europe, Serbian intelligence services are investigating an attempt to sabotage the Balkan Stream gas pipeline in northern Serbia, where two large packages of explosives were found. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán implied Ukraine's involvement, which Kyiv 'categorically' rejected, while Moscow deemed it 'highly likely' Ukraine was involved.

Trump's public appearances during this period have drawn global attention, including a bizarre address alongside a giant Easter Bunny, where he reiterated his threats against Iran, leading to internet bewilderment. Despite his confrontational rhetoric, Trump admitted the American public wants to see US forces return home and that he seeks an 'acceptable' peace deal. Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar has called for 'urgent de-escalation' amidst ongoing, yet so far unfruitful, mediation efforts. Amidst these tensions, Hungary is gearing up for parliamentary elections, with US Vice President JD Vance arriving to support current Prime Minister Orbán against opponent Péter Magyar.

Beyond the immediate conflicts, Sudan is approaching its fourth year of war, facing one of the world's worst humanitarian crises. UN Goodwill Ambassador Kristin Davis highlighted the surprising lack of media coverage for the crisis, where over 30 million people need humanitarian assistance and roughly 12 million are displaced.