As Iran anticipates a fragile peace, the nation faces a precarious transition from wartime unity to a future plagued by severe economic and social instability. The cessation of hostilities, while desired, threatens to unravel the temporary cohesion forged during conflict, revealing deep-seated issues such as hyperinflation, a projected 10% economic contraction, and widespread power cuts. Debates are already emerging within the regime about the country’s post-war direction, with some advocating for greater openness and others, like Saeed Ajorlou, pushing for development through autonomy, now that the perception of a 'weak Iran' has been challenged.

A critical factor in Iran's recovery hinges on whether Donald Trump will genuinely lift the economic blockade. However, Iranian economists are skeptical, predicting only marginal relief from the estimated $270 billion (£200bn) losses inflicted on the economy, encompassing vital sectors like infrastructure, schools, energy, steelworks, and housing. Commentators, such as sociology professor Fuad Habibi, warn against underestimating the deep societal dissatisfaction. He notes that the conditions that fueled bloody protests in January remain unresolved and have been exacerbated by the war, leading to a rare surge in prices due to the naval blockade and an internet blockade that has caused at least 2 million direct or indirect job losses. Without formal channels for expressing dissent, Habibi suggests, societal unrest will continue to surface unexpectedly.

The current internal solidarity, according to analysts, is a temporary consequence of facing an external enemy. However, echoing Hegel, the moment of victory often heralds internal divisions. Should a peace deal materialize, Iran's economy would confront peacetime with food inflation at its highest since World War II, with May's annual food inflation reaching 130% and meat and chicken prices soaring by 176%, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran. Health experts are particularly alarmed by potential increases in malnutrition, osteoporosis, and growth stunting, as Iranians are forced to eliminate dairy products from their diets.

Former communications minister Mohammad Javad Azari Jahromi has cautioned that future threats might not be military, but economic, targeting