U.S. and Iranian negotiators have reportedly reached a tentative agreement to extend a three-month-old ceasefire by 60 days, paving the way for a new round of talks focused on Iran's controversial nuclear program. While a U.S. official familiar with the matter confirmed the emerging memorandum of understanding, Iran has yet to officially confirm any deal. A critical hurdle remains, as President Donald Trump has not yet signed off on the agreement, leaving its finalization uncertain.

This tentative deal comes amidst a period of extreme fragility for the existing ceasefire. Just prior to the agreement's announcement, a significant flare-up occurred when Kuwait intercepted missiles fired from Iran, an incident confirmed by U.S. Central Command. This latest confrontation followed earlier U.S. strikes, which included shooting down four one-way attack drones threatening the Strait of Hormuz and hitting an Iranian ground-control station in Bandar Abbas. Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard acknowledged the attack near Bandar Abbas International Airport and claimed to have launched a retaliatory strike on the air base responsible for the assaults, though it did not specify if Kuwait was the target. Kuwait’s Foreign Ministry condemned Iran for "blatant aggression," with U.S. Central Command calling it an "egregious ceasefire violation." Prior to the April ceasefire, Kuwait had frequently been subjected to attacks from Iran and Iranian-backed Shiite militias.

A key component of the proposed memorandum directly addresses the critical Strait of Hormuz. The agreement stipulates that Iran will be prohibited from imposing tolls on the vital waterway and must remove all mines from it within 30 days. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial global chokepoint, through which approximately a fifth of the world's traded oil and natural gas passes. During the recent conflict, Iran had effectively closed the strait, leading to a dramatic surge in global oil prices. While Iran claims to have allowed some commercial vessels to pass (around two dozen daily, down from over 100 before the war), it has also charged tolls for certain ships and recently established a formal "gatekeeper agency," which in turn triggered a new round of U.S. sanctions. Under the tentative agreement, the U.S. would gradually lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports and relax sanctions, allowing Iran to increase its oil sales. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a rapid decline in oil costs once a deal is finalized.

However, the nuclear issue remains a significant unresolved challenge. The first matter to be negotiated during the 60-day ceasefire will be the fate of Iran's highly enriched uranium. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran possesses 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% purity, which is considered a short technical step away from weapons-grade levels (90%). Iran has not publicly committed to relinquishing this stockpile, which is reportedly buried under nuclear sites previously damaged by U.S. airstrikes. While some nuclear analysts suggest China or Russia, given their close ties with Tehran, could be acceptable third parties to take possession of the enriched uranium, President Trump expressed discomfort with such a plan on Wednesday.

Beyond the nuclear and maritime issues, Iran is also reportedly insisting on a "Lebanon angle" to any comprehensive deal. Tehran demands that any agreement include an end to Israel’s military operations in Lebanon against the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah. This condition underscores the broader regional tensions, which were further exacerbated on Thursday when Israel conducted airstrikes on a southern suburb of Beirut and the southern coastal city of Tyre, resulting in at least 14 fatalities across southern Lebanon. Despite the continuous exchange of strikes and accusations of ceasefire violations, both Washington and Tehran have thus far managed to avoid a return to full-scale hostilities, opting instead to continue diplomatic negotiations.