Early 2027 Presidential Poll: Tinubu Narrowly Leads Peter Obi

President Bola Tinubu has taken a narrow lead over Peter Obi in the Oxford-Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll, a significant indicator ahead of Nigeria's 2027 presidential election. The poll, which concluded on September 7, meticulously processed 69,110 approved and unflagged responses, forming its conclusive analytical dataset. Tinubu garnered 24,469 responses, constituting 35.41 percent of the total, positioning him 1.55 percentage points ahead of Obi, who received 23,402 responses, accounting for 33.86 percent.

Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar secured the third position with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 percent of the total participation. The regional breakdown of the poll presents a distinct landscape compared to the outcome of the 2023 presidential election. President Tinubu demonstrated leadership in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory, while Obi and Atiku each recorded the highest number of responses in eight states.

Tinubu's most notable gains were observed in parts of Northern Nigeria, specifically in Kaduna, Katsina, and Gombe states, which Atiku had won in the 2023 presidential election. Furthermore, Tinubu also led in Kano, a state previously won by Rabiu Kwankwaso, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) presidential candidate in 2023.

At the geopolitical zone level, Tinubu established dominance in the South-West, North-West, and North-Central regions. In the South-West, he polled 10,968 responses, representing 43.53 percent of the zone’s total participation. He also led the North-West with 4,129 responses (43.10 percent) and the North-Central with 6,370 responses (36.97 percent).

Peter Obi showcased his strongest regional performance in the South-East, securing 5,796 responses, which translates to 63.97 percent of the region's participation. He also led in the South-South with 2,389 responses, making up 41.48 percent of the region’s total. Atiku Abubakar’s most formidable showing was in the North-East, where he garnered 1,235 responses, representing 55.46 percent of the participation in that zone.

Despite President Tinubu’s wider geographical spread of leads, the national figures underscore a tightly contested race among the three leading candidates. Several state-level results also highlighted narrow margins. In Kogi State, for example, Tinubu received 39 responses, closely followed by Atiku with 38 and Obi with 33, out of a total of 110 responses recorded. In the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Tinubu polled 5,599 responses against Obi’s 5,278, creating a margin of 321 responses, with Atiku receiving 3,954. Tinubu also led Obi in Rivers State, securing 975 responses compared to Obi’s 892, while Atiku garnered 568.

Beyond the primary contenders, other notable individuals also registered in the poll. Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519, and former President Goodluck Jonathan with 284. Lesser known candidates included Anita Zugwai-Chukwu with 18 responses, Sandy Onor with six, and Prince Kennedy Ahanotu with two. A significant portion of participants expressed indecision or lack of trust in current options, with 638 selecting “I Do Not Trust Any Candidate Yet,” 204 remaining undecided, and 122 choosing “Other Candidate.” The poll also revealed a high geographical concentration of participation, with Lagos and the FCT collectively accounting for 54.44 percent of all responses.