Zambia's Finance Minister, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, presented a record-breaking national budget of K253.1 billion for 2026 in Parliament, marking a significant increase from K217.1 billion in 2025. This fiscal plan, anchored on robust domestic resource mobilization, carries both economic ambition and notable political weight, given that 2026 is an election year. Musokotwane highlighted that K206.5 billion, representing 81.6 percent of the budget and 22.3 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), would be sourced from domestic revenues. This strategic emphasis underscores the government's commitment to strengthening fiscal sovereignty and reducing reliance on external sources, although it places a greater responsibility on taxpayers and businesses.

The mining sector was a key focus of the budget presentation, with Musokotwane pointing to significant improvements and “major milestones.” Copper production saw a commendable increase, rising from 736,747 tonnes in 2023 to 820,676 tonnes in 2024. Looking ahead, the government is targeting one million tonnes of copper production in 2026, a goal deemed well within reach. This forms part of an ambitious journey towards achieving three million tonnes per annum by 2031. The positive performance in the sector is attributed to a stable mining tax and regulatory regime, coupled with effective out-of-court dispute settlements, which have collectively encouraged the reopening of old mines, attracted new investments, and revitalized existing operations.

Notable progress towards these production goals includes the commissioning of the First Quantum Minerals S3 Expansion Project, which is set to boost annual production by 270,000 tonnes. Additionally, existing mines such as Barrick Lumwana Super Pit, Konkola Copper Mines, Lubambe Copper Mine, and Mopani Copper Mines are upscaling their production, with a combined capacity of 593,000 tonnes per annum. Further solidifying future output, new mines like Mwekera Copper Mine, Mingomba Mine, and Kitumba Mine, possessing a combined production capacity of 700,000 metric tonnes per annum, are now at an advanced stage of development. These developments are projected to propel the already growing Zambian economy to impressive levels within the next two years.

Artisanal and small-scale miners have also shown remarkable performance, with copper production projected to exceed 80,000 tonnes this year, a substantial rise from 13,300 tonnes in 2020. This segment is also a significant contributor to the production of gemstones, gold, and manganese. To formalize these operations, 1,498 licenses have been issued since 2023. However, concerns persist regarding increased incidences of accidents and fatalities due to unsafe mining practices, a problem the government is actively addressing with allocated financial resources in the new budget.

Regarding the budget's financing, while domestic revenues form the backbone, grants from cooperating partners are projected at K12.1 billion, or 4.8 percent of the budget. The remaining K34.5 billion, equivalent to 3.7 percent of GDP, will be financed through both domestic and external borrowing. This highlights Zambia’s delicate balancing act of limiting debt accumulation while still relying on borrowing to bridge financing gaps.

To underpin this financial framework, Musokotwane proposed a series of tax adjustments. These include higher citizenship and visa fees, firearm fees, mobile money levies, and tolls for larger vehicles, with exemptions for smaller cars, light vehicles, and buses. These measures are partly intended to recover revenue from segments that have historically avoided paying taxes. Regulatory taxation is also evident with the introduction of a 30 percent excise duty on firearms and ammunition, alongside harmonizing customs duty on firearms at 25 percent. Furthermore, buses with a seating capacity of 50 or more will be excluded from presumptive tax, shifting them to turnover or corporate tax, thereby formalizing transport taxation.

On the expenditure side, the budget places a strong emphasis on social protection and infrastructure, recognizing their dual developmental and political importance. The allocation for the Food Security Pack will increase to K1.5 billion from K1.2 billion, extending its reach to more vulnerable households. Health infrastructure has been earmarked K1.7 billion, signaling government’s commitment to investing in long-term access to essential services. Overall, K15.7 billion is allocated to social protection, including K7.6 billion for the Social Cash Transfer Programme and K4.9 billion for pension payments. These programs offer immediate relief to impoverished families and retirees, while also holding strong political resonance in an election year by demonstrating governmental responsiveness. The focus on roads, bridges, and social transfers aligns with what are often termed “visible projects,” designed to be easily showcased to voters. The allocation of K1.2 billion for the conduct of the 2026 general elections further underscores how the upcoming polls have shaped the fiscal framework. Ultimately, while the record K253.1 billion budget reflects Zambia’s aspirations for expanded spending and fulfilling social commitments, it also intricately balances economic necessities with strategic political timing.