Will we soon have to give up the sweet, rich flavors that brighten our childhood desserts? According to a study published on July 3 in Frontiers in Plant Science, climate change could separate vanilla plants from their pollinators, posing a global supply risk.

Researchers reached this conclusion after analyzing the distribution of 11 wild vanilla species from tropical America and their 7 pollinators under two climate change scenarios. These scenarios suggest that climatic conditions might improve for seven vanilla species, potentially expanding their distribution by up to 140% by 2050. However, the remaining four species could see their distribution shrink by up to 53%.

Conversely, the distribution ranges of the seven pollinators could significantly decrease, especially under the most pessimistic scenario. This spells a grim fate for wild vanillas. “Their dependence on pollinators could jeopardize their survival,” warns Charlotte Watteyn, lead author of the study and researcher at the Lankester Botanical Garden Research Center of the University of Costa Rica.

This decline would indirectly affect cultivated vanillas, which are characterized by low genetic diversity and greater vulnerability to droughts, heat, and diseases. They would no longer be able to crossbreed with the more resilient wild varieties.