The prices of petroleum products surge again as the global hostilities push oil prices amid hostilities in the Middle East.

The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) on Saturday announced that super petrol prices are set to increase following the latest fuel review. In the review, EPRA revealed that petrol had increased by Ksh2.69 per litre, while diesel and kerosene had decreased by Ksh1.95 and Ksh2.06 per litre, respectively.

Consequently, super petrol now retails at Ksh177.32, diesel at Ksh162.91, and kerosene at Ksh146.93 per litre in Nairobi. The upward revision comes amid growing concerns over global oil market instability, with analysts warning that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could trigger further hikes.

Over the past week, reports of missile attacks, drone strikes, and retaliatory threats between Israel and Iran have unsettled oil markets.

A person refuels his car at a petrol station.

Photo

Trading Room

Iran, a key member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plays a central role in the global oil supply chain, and any disruption to its output or infrastructure could tighten supply, triggering further price surges.

The oil futures curve is strengthening on concerns that Israel’s latest strike on Iran could have severe and long-lasting repercussions. Front-month Brent prices have spiked by as much as 13 per cent, according to Bloomberg. 

The region, which supplies a significant share of the world's crude oil, is facing heightened volatility due to ongoing conflicts and fears of disruption in key shipping lanes such as the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.

Energy experts have noted that recent attacks, coupled with simmering tensions involving Iran and its regional proxies, have increased the risk of supply delays and higher transportation costs. These developments have already prompted oil tankers to avoid traditional routes within the Red Sea, increasing global shipping costs and pushing up refined fuel prices.

Kenya, which relies heavily on fuel imports, remains vulnerable to such external shocks. EPRA has already signalled that international price trends are factored into local reviews, meaning any sustained turmoil in the Middle East could translate into higher costs for motorists and households in the coming months.

In its weekly review, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) noted, “International oil prices increased during the week, with Murban crude rising to Ksh8,816.61 (USD 68.24) per barrel on June 12, up from Ksh8,383.79 (USD 64.89) on June 5. This rise was primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.”

The timing is particularly sensitive for Kenya, which imports nearly all its refined fuel. Higher crude costs ripple through wholesale and retail stages, risking steeper prices for consumers. If geopolitical volatility persists, motorists, transport operators, and low-income households may brace for further strain on disposable incomes.

Meanwhile, according to EPRA, the average landed cost of imported super petrol increased by 0.35 per cent from US$588.16 (Ksh76,166) per cubic metre in April 2025 to US$590.24 (Ksh76,436) in May 2025.

Conversely, diesel decreased by 2.42 per cent from US$594.60 (Ksh77,000) per cubic metre to US$580.23 (Ksh75,139), while Kerosene decreased by 5.14 per cent from US$599.84 (Ksh77,679) per cubic metre to US$569.00 (Ksh73,685) per cubic metre over the same period.

EPRA Director General Daniel Kiptoo speaking in February 2024

EPRA