This weekend marks a crucial moment in Kenyan history, as it could redefine the country’s political landscape for the next decade. Leading this significant event is Raila Odinga, who is competing to take over from Moussa Faki as the chairperson of the African Union Commission (AUC). The results of this event, whether Raila emerges victorious or not, will have far-reaching consequences for Kenyan politics.

Raila’s Kenyan political role is comparable to quantum physics’s superposition. He occupies a distinctive position within Kenyan politics, not fully aligned with the government or the opposition. Many view his charisma and influence as a stabilising force, akin to that of a governing entity. So, when Suba North MP Millie Odhiambo equates Raila to a ‘tsunami’ in Kenyan politics, she recognises Raila’s impact on Kenyan politics. Over the past four decades, Raila has navigated Kenyan politics, having held various roles in government and the opposition.

His political journey has experienced decisive alliances, including a partnership with President Daniel Arap Moi during the late 1990s party mergers, a coalition government with President Mwai Kibaki in the 2000s, and a handshake with President Uhuru Kenyatta in 2018 aimed at promoting national unity. Raila’s political legacy is now more intricate following his recent collaboration with President Ruto in a broad-based government. His versatility and enduring reputation, despite changing power structures, demonstrate his resilience and revolutionary influence on Kenyan politics.

But what makes Raila’s AUC bid important to the nation? Raila Odinga is a major player in Kenyan politics. Historically, he has garnered nearly half of the electorate’s support. Data from prior, successive elections support this. In the 2007 election, Raila lost to President Mwai Kibaki by a narrow margin of just 231,728 votes. Similarly, the difference in vote totals between Raila and Uhuru Kenyatta in the 2013 election was also close, reflecting his considerable political support in subsequent elections. Given these factors, Raila Odinga is a pivotal figure in Kenyan politics. Should he emerge victorious, the focus will shift to how he manages his supporters and passes on the political mantle within his party and beyond.

If he wins the AU seat, would he create a power vacuum in the country? Absolutely! A victory of this kind would change the political landscape of Kenya and cause various factions to realign and recalibrate. His ascent to power may alter the alliances and power dynamics, creating a competitive environment and testing long-standing allegiances.

With President William Ruto endorsing Raila’s bid, we may witness a situation where a key political figure from the lake region serves as his deputy in the upcoming elections. This will set the stage for a heightened political battle between the Rift Valley and the Mountain region. This shift might influence legislative priorities and how resources and political patronage are distributed.

Raila’s triumph will exemplify Kenya’s real democracy. A sitting President is backing a strong opposition candidate to head a continental body. But if he loses! Should Raila fail to secure the position, the consequences could pose significant challenges for Ruto’s administration. His continued presence in domestic politics may reshape opposition strategies and disrupt Ruto’s political calculations. His return would inject fresh energy into Azimio la Umoja and other opposition formations, providing a stronger counterbalance to Ruto’s government.

Raila’s presence in the 2027 elections could complicate Ruto’s re-election bid, as he could consolidate opposition and make the next election highly competitive. Raila’s ability to mobilise protests and push for reforms could destabilise Ruto’s administration, forcing the government to focus on countering opposition narratives rather than national development.