Shabana Mahmood, Britain's home secretary, is poised to unveil significant reforms to the country's asylum system on Monday, aiming to address escalating public anxieties surrounding immigration. These proposals, described by Mahmood as "the most sweeping reforms to tackle illegal migration in modern times," seek to "restore control and fairness to the system" by altering laws that currently guarantee housing and financial aid to destitute asylum seekers.

The cornerstone of the proposed changes is a shift from automatic handouts to a "discretionary" system for asylum support. This means the Home Office will gain the power to deny assistance to individuals deemed capable of working, possessing assets, failing to comply with removal directions, engaging in criminality, disrupting accommodation settings, or working illegally. This marks an end to the legal duty, introduced in 2005 under EU law, that ensured unconditional financial assistance to all asylum claimants who would otherwise be destitute.

Despite the comprehensive nature of these reforms, government sources have indicated that the majority of the approximately 100,000 asylum seekers currently receiving state support are unlikely to be immediately affected. Crucially, the rules preventing most asylum seekers from holding jobs will remain unchanged. While about a third of recipients are still housed in hotels – a practice Labour aims to end by 2029 – only a small fraction, around 8,500 individuals, possess the right to work due to initial visa entry or long-standing claims with no fault of their own, often limited to specific shortage occupations. The government has not specified the expected financial savings from these measures, but suggests that denying support to those who break rules could further reduce costs.

A core inspiration for these reforms is Denmark's stringent asylum model, which the UK government intends to emulate. A Home Office delegation recently travelled to Copenhagen to study the country's immigration reforms, overseen by its centre-left Social Democrats. The Danish system has successfully resisted electoral challenges from the populist right by implementing strict policies, resulting in the number of successful asylum claims reaching a 40-year low (excluding 2020 pandemic data).

Key aspects of the Danish model include the controversial policy of returning individuals granted asylum to their home countries once they are considered safe – a stark contrast to the UK's current system, where refugees typically receive five years of protection before being eligible for indefinite leave to remain and a pathway to British citizenship. Furthermore, Denmark imposes tight controls on family reunification, excluding refugees residing in housing estates designated as "parallel societies," where more than half of the residents originate from "non-western" backgrounds. Danish law even permits the demolition of housing within these estates, a measure intended to promote integration but one that has drawn concerns about potential discrimination from EU officials.

Further details, reported by the Sunday Times, suggest that the UK reforms could also introduce a 20-year waiting period for individuals who arrive illegally before they can apply for permanent settlement. These particular changes are expected to apply exclusively to new arrivals.

The timing and nature of these proposals are understood to be strategically aimed at appeasing Labour voters who might be contemplating shifting their support to the Reform party in the upcoming general election. Reform's recent lead in polls has been significantly fueled by the surge in small boat crossings over the past five years, a challenge that successive governments have struggled to curb. The party has pledged that, if in power, those arriving in Britain via small boats would be ineligible to claim asylum. While some Labour MPs reportedly harbor reservations about losing support to the Greens and Liberal Democrats, the government has signaled that any internal rebellion against these measures is unlikely to be tolerated. Moreover, a consultation is anticipated on "additional requirements migrants could have to follow to receive and retain benefits," with a stated priority for those who "contribute and integrate."

Mahmood affirmed the country's "proud tradition of welcoming those fleeing danger," but also cautioned that "our generosity is drawing illegal migrants across the Channel," leading to "immense pressure on communities." The proposed reforms represent a determined effort to recalibrate Britain's immigration posture, balancing humanitarian principles with perceived national security and resource pressures, drawing clear inspiration from hardline European approaches.