The week concluded with a series of critical international and European developments, ranging from high-stakes nuclear talks to significant political shifts and ongoing geopolitical tensions. US-Iran nuclear talks in Oman, a prisoner swap between Ukraine and Russia, and new revelations from the Jeffrey Epstein files were among the top stories dominating headlines.

Critical nuclear talks between the United States and Iran were set to commence in Oman. Ahead of these discussions, former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert issued a stark warning to the US, urging them not to "underestimate" Tehran's "cunning" negotiating tactics. Olmert elaborated on his views regarding Iran, stating that any regime change should originate "from within" the country, rather than through external military intervention. He emphasized that even a "massive American attack" would likely not alter the regime, reiterating his hope that change would come from the Iranian people themselves, ideally "without a massive number of Iranian citizens being killed." Olmert described Iranian negotiators as "smart, cunning, manipulative," and "experts" at the game, primarily seeking to "avoid any further military attacks by the United States." Shifting to the occupied West Bank, Olmert drew a sharp distinction from Gaza, asserting that Israel bears "total control" and responsibility for "perpetrating inhuman hostilities against non-involved Palestinians," which he likened to "an attempt to make ethnic cleansing."

In the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi resulted in a significant prisoner exchange, with 314 prisoners of war being swapped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterized these negotiations as "constructive." However, reports from Ukraine correspondent Sasha Vakulina highlighted that Moscow’s "maximalist territorial demands" remain a significant obstacle to a lasting peace. Echoing this sentiment, General Ben Hodges, former commander of US Army Europe, speaking on Europe Today, asserted that Russia "has not changed any of their maximalist demands" and suggested that the US views the talks more as a "giant real-estate deal" than a genuine effort to address the conflict's origins.

In Brussels, EU ambassadors were anticipated to receive a preliminary presentation of the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, designed to further debilitate Moscow’s war efforts. Uncertainty loomed over whether the European Commission would delay the formal unveiling of these texts until the following week. Europe continues to find itself on the periphery of the Ukraine peace talks, despite French President Emmanuel Macron's attempts to re-establish diplomatic dialogue with the Kremlin. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly criticized Macron's recent decision to send his diplomatic advisor, Emmanuel Bonne, to the Kremlin, labeling it "pathetic diplomacy." Lavrov challenged the French leader, stating, "If you want to call and have a serious conversation, then call. Putin will always pick up the phone."

Meanwhile, the chiefs of the European Commission and European Council met with President Macron at the Élysée Palace in Paris. Discussions focused on "security" and "competitiveness," serving as preparations for an upcoming leaders’ summit aimed at re-establishing Europe's competitive edge in the global arena. Macron’s message was unequivocal: "plus vite!" He called for Europe to "invest, diversify and simplify, faster" to regain prominence amidst a rapidly evolving landscape of global tensions. Complementing this push, European Investment Bank (EIB) chief Nadia Calviño reiterated her call for the creation of a single EU financial system, known as the Savings and Investments Union, ahead of a gathering on the Belgian-Dutch border. The EIB also committed to frontloading €3 billion to help mitigate the impact of the EU's carbon tax on road transport and buildings, addressing concerns over potential energy bill increases.

On the political front, US President Donald Trump issued a "total endorsement" of Hungarian Prime Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in anticipation of Hungary's consequential election in April. Trump lauded Orbán as a "true friend, fighter, and WINNER," noting that the Hungary-US relationship had reached "new heights" under their collaboration. This endorsement aligns with a broader trend of key figures from the Trump administration, such as Vice-President JD Vance, forging alliances with Europe’s far-right factions. Trump had previously backed Argentina’s Javier Milei for re-election, accompanied by a significant US Treasury currency swap line. A controversial US national security strategy from December also pledged to "reward and encourage (Europe’s) governments, political parties, and movements broadly aligned with our principles and strategy."

Portugal is heading for a presidential run-off election, marking the first time in 40 years that the ballot has extended to a second round, signaling an increasingly fragmented political environment. Moderate Socialist candidate António José Seguro is projected to win, garnering support from several Conservative politicians keen to prevent a victory for his far-right opponent, André Ventura of the anti-establishment Chega party. While the presidency is largely ceremonial, centrist politicians fear Ventura could leverage the role for future governmental ambitions. Current polls suggest Seguro leads with 67% against Ventura's 33%. However, concerns are mounting over the impact of devastating floods from Storm Leonardo, which has claimed one life and necessitated hundreds of evacuations. Ventura has called for the vote to be postponed by a week due to safety concerns, a request the national electoral authority has rejected, stating the election will proceed as planned.

Further unsettling revelations emerged from the US Department of Justice’s release of over three million additional documents linked to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. These files have already triggered resignations and accusations across Europe concerning Epstein’s relationships with the continent’s political elite. The new material, comprising images, emails, and texts, illustrates Epstein’s extensive network. While the DOJ deemed these documents relevant for investigation, they were considered insufficient to bring charges against those mentioned. Nevertheless, the files implicate several unexpected public figures. French President Emmanuel Macron was a focal point for online claims, with hundreds of indirect references in media clippings and political discussions. A few exchanges hint at Epstein’s attempts to connect with Macron via intermediaries, though no evidence of direct communication exists. More sustained contact was revealed between Epstein and former French culture minister Jack Lang, his daughter Caroline Lang, former Norwegian foreign minister Børge Brende, and prime minister Thorbjørn Jagland. Text messages showed former Slovakian Foreign Minister Miroslav Lajčák discussing women with Epstein. Jagland, who communicated with Epstein during his tenure as secretary general of the Council of Europe, was mentioned in an exchange where Epstein claimed Jagland would visit his private Caribbean island, and other messages referenced potential meetings. Jagland has vehemently denied any knowledge of Epstein’s criminal activities.

In other news, the European Investment Bank (EIB) announced it would frontload €3 billion to mitigate the financial impact of the EU's carbon tax on road transport and buildings, a move influenced by pressure from the European Parliament to address potential increases in energy bills. Additionally, the Council of Europe chief advocated for strong political and financial backing for the Ukraine Special Tribunal, urging governments to contribute financially to ensure accountability for aggression in Ukraine, underscoring the tribunal's paramount importance. Informal talks involving EU environment and climate ministers were also underway in Cyprus.