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Bitcoin has once again shattered its records, soaring to a new all-time high and igniting fresh excitement across the market. But is this rally built to last, or are we heading for a sharp correction? In this week's crypto update, Nick from Equities Tracker and Brian from Santiment break down the data behind the headlines. They reveal how crypto whales are making massive moves, why this price surge feels different from the last, and what key metrics traders should be watching now. Get ready for a data-backed look at the forces shaping the market, from institutional ETF flows to the surprising altcoin sector leading the charge.

The big news of the week is Bitcoin's powerful surge past its previous all-time high of $112k, reaching an impressive $116,500. This move marks a significant milestone after a period of consolidation. However, Brian notes that the market's reaction is more subdued this time. "It's a bit of a muted celebration compared to previous all-time highs," he observed. He views this lack of widespread euphoria as a healthy sign, suggesting the market isn't overly greedy yet.

Actionable Tip: Watch social media sentiment. A sudden spike in euphoria or "FOMO" could signal that a local top is forming.

While a new record is exciting, the real question is whether this momentum is sustainable. Unlike past rallies driven by pure retail hype, this one feels more measured. Brian believes the true test lies ahead. "The true test will be how high can this Bitcoin rally go now?" he asked. A sustained push toward $120k would change the narrative and signal a new phase of the bull run.

Actionable Tip: Set alerts for key price levels like $120k (upside confirmation) and the previous all-time high around $112k (potential support).

Behind the price action, large-scale investors, or "whales," have been quietly accumulating. Brian shared compelling data showing that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been in a clear buying trend. Over the past six weeks, these influential wallets have added approximately 95,000 BTC to their holdings, demonstrating strong confidence from key stakeholders.

Actionable Tip: Follow the whale accumulation trend. A reversal where these large wallets start distributing their holdings could be an early warning of a price drop.

The influence of institutional capital is undeniable, and the ETF market tells a clear story. Since early June, Bitcoin ETFs have seen consistent inflows, with only a single day of outflows. Brian highlighted that this has resulted in a collective three to three-and-a-half billion dollars flowing into these products, showing that large capital traders are betting heavily on crypto's long-term future.

Actionable Tip: Keep an eye on daily ETF flow data. A shift from consistent inflows to several days of outflows could indicate weakening institutional demand.

Despite the bullish news, some on-chain metrics are flashing caution. The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, which measures average trader profitability, has spiked. "It's a little bit risky right now from a long-term perspective," Brian warned. These levels are the highest since the previous all-time high in May, which was followed by a correction.

Actionable Tip: Consider taking some profits or setting tighter stop-losses when MVRV and RSI are in high-risk zones, as the probability of a pullback increases.

A fascinating pattern has emerged: retail impatience often precedes a price rally. Brian showed a chart tracking the number of non-empty Bitcoin wallets, which are dominated by smaller retail holders. He pointed out several instances where a decline in these wallets was followed by a significant price jump, as was the case with the most recent breakout.

Actionable Tip: Monitor the trend of non-empty wallet counts. A sustained increase in these wallets during a price peak can signal retail FOMO, a classic contrarian indicator.

Crypto no longer operates in a vacuum. Brian explained that Bitcoin's price is now highly correlated with the S&P 500 due to the influx of institutional traders. "Historically, the biggest bull runs in crypto have happened when there is zero correlation," he said. That condition hasn't existed since 2021, making it crucial to watch both markets.

Actionable Tip: Pay attention to major economic news and S&P 500 movements, as they are likely to influence Bitcoin's direction in the current market environment.

While Bitcoin grabs the headlines, Ethereum has been quietly outperforming it, approaching the $3,000 mark. Social sentiment surrounding Ethereum has turned extremely bullish. Interestingly, Brian suggests this widespread optimism could be a short-term headwind. "It's usually going to do its best work... if there isn't so much bullish narrative going on," he explained.

Actionable Tip: Be cautious when social sentiment for an asset becomes overwhelmingly positive, as this can be a contrarian signal that a short-term peak is approaching.

Looking at the bigger picture for Ethereum, the on-chain data is incredibly strong. The largest Ethereum wallets (holding 10,000+ ETH) have increased their holdings to a staggering 75.74% of the total supply. This is the highest concentration of ETH held by whales since May 2017 and is a powerful long-term bullish signal.

Actionable Tip: For long-term conviction, track the supply held by top-tier wallets. A continued increase reinforces a bullish thesis, while a decrease could signal a shift.

An analysis of different crypto sectors revealed a surprising leader over the past week: memecoins, which gained nearly 17%. Brian pointed out that this could be a sign of caution. "Memecoin surges are like the last stage of any rally," he noted. When speculative assets lead the market, it can indicate that greed is reaching a peak.

Actionable Tip: When memecoins are exploding, it's a good time to review your portfolio's risk exposure, as this often indicates peak greed.

XRP is also showing signs of strength. The number of wallets holding one million or more XRP has just hit an all-time high of 2,743. Not only are there more XRP whales than ever, but the total supply they hold is also increasing. This dual trend is a very positive sign for the fourth-largest crypto asset.

Actionable Tip: Look for confluence in whale metrics. When both the number of large wallets and the total supply they hold are rising, it's a strong bullish signal for that asset.

With many altcoins outperforming Bitcoin, the question is whether altseason has truly begun. The data confirms that, for now, it has. The key to its continuation, according to Brian, is Bitcoin's stability. As long as Bitcoin can maintain its position above the crucial psychological support level of around $110k, traders will likely feel comfortable redistributing profits into altcoins.

Actionable Tip: If you're trading altcoins, use Bitcoin's price action around the $110k level as a key indicator for the health of the broader altcoin market.

The week ended on a high note, but the work is not done. The next few days, particularly the start of next week, will be a critical test for the market's momentum. "Plan on bracing yourself for Monday most likely," Brian advised. "That's when we'll really see the test as to whether crypto can maintain the momentum."

Actionable Tip: Be extra vigilant at the start of the trading week. Weekend price moves can be less reliable, and Monday often sets the tone for the days ahead.

This week was a landmark for crypto, with Bitcoin setting a new record backed by strong whale and institutional buying. However, the data also signals caution, with key metrics suggesting the market is becoming overheated. While altcoins are enjoying their time in the sun, their fate remains tied to Bitcoin's ability to hold its ground.

The insights from Nick and Brian underscore the power of a data-driven approach. By looking beyond the price and analyzing on-chain activity, investors can gain a clearer understanding of market dynamics and make more informed decisions. As the market continues to evolve, keeping a close watch on these metrics will be more important than ever.

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