This move, announced on July 2, 2025, at the Yar’Adua Centre in Abuja, aims to consolidate prominent opposition figures, including former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna state governor Nasir el-Rufai, former Rivers state governor Rotimi Amaechi, and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate Peter Obi, under a single platform. The choice of the ADC, a relatively neutral party with limited historical electoral success, offers a fresh start, free from the baggage of larger parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP), both of which are grappling with internal crises.

However, while this development is promising, unseating an incumbent president in Nigeria, particularly one as politically astute as Tinubu, surrounded by seasoned politicians, requires far more than a coalition of individuals. The opposition’s success hinges on overcoming significant structural weaknesses, building a robust political base, and presenting a united front with clear leadership and ideology.

A fundamental flaw in the ADC-led coalition is the lack of clear party membership and institutional support, which could be the first catalyst for its failure. Unlike the APC’s formation in 2013, which was a merger of established parties like the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), and a faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) with governors, senators, and house of representatives members, the ADC coalition appears to be a loose alliance of individuals rather than a coalition of parties with robust structures. In Nigeria, political success depends heavily on grassroots mobilisation, state-level influence, and legislative backing.

The APC’s 2015 victory over the PDP was built on the strength of its constituent parties, which controlled multiple states and had significant representation in the National Assembly. In contrast, the ADC lacks comparable organisational depth, and its coalition partners, primarily drawn from a fractured PDP and a leaderless LP, do not bring the necessary institutional weight. The PDP, once Nigeria’s dominant political force, is currently in shambles, with internal conflicts undermining its cohesion.

Key PDP governors, such as Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom and Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa, have either openly supported Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid or aligned with factions sympathetic to the APC, leaving the PDP unable to provide meaningful support to the ADC coalition. The party’s acting national chairman, Umar Damagum, faces challenges in unifying its ranks, further weakening its contribution. Similarly, the Labour Party is embroiled in a leadership crisis, with national chairman Julius Abure resisting efforts by Peter Obi to assert control, leading to defections and confusion. Abia state governor Alex Otti, the LP’s only governor, has not publicly endorsed the ADC coalition and is reportedly being courted by the APC, isolating the coalition from critical state-level support. Moreover, the majority of LP’s national assembly members have defected to the APC, and those remaining are openly aligning with the ruling party, further eroding the coalition’s legislative base.

Without a strong foundation of party membership and institutional support, the ADC cannot rely on the individual prominence of figures like Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi to work political miracles. Both Atiku and Obi have shown desperation to occupy Aso Rock, Nigeria’s presidential seat, but their individual popularity is insufficient without a cohesive party structure. Obi’s 2023 performance, where he secured 25% of the vote in 12 states, was impressive but relied heavily on a spontaneous “Obidient” movement rather than a disciplined party apparatus. Atiku, despite his long-standing political career, has struggled to unify the PDP, and his influence is waning as younger politicians seek alternative platforms. The ADC’s lack of a clear political base, combined with the absence of state governors and legislators, severely limits its ability to mobilise voters across Nigeria’s diverse regions.

Another critical challenge is the coalition’s candidate selection strategy, particularly the need to field a Northerner as its presidential candidate in 2027. Nigeria’s political arena is heavily influenced by regional and ethnic dynamics, with power rotation between the North and South being an unwritten but critical factor in electoral success. Tinubu, a Southerner from the Southwest, will likely leverage this dynamic to retain Northern support, where the APC has a strong base. If the ADC fails to field a credible Northern candidate, it risks alienating a significant portion of the electorate, particularly in the Northwest and Northeast, which account for a substantial share of Nigeria’s voting population.

Without a northerner leading the ticket, the ADC could lose the election before noon on election day, as northern voters may perceive the coalition as disconnected from their interests. The coalition’s reliance on southern figures like Obi, or even Atiku, whose northern credentials are overshadowed by his long association with southern political elites, could prove fatal.

The ADC coalition’s formation also raises concerns about its potential to serve as a bandwagon for lazy politicians, particularly underperforming National Assembly members seeking to retain their seats. In 2023, the Labour Party’s unexpected success in several constituencies was driven by a trend of voting LP “from top to bottom,” regardless of candidate quality. This resulted in the election of several unqualified individuals, particularly in the Southeast, including Anambra State, where voters prioritised party loyalty over competence. These legislators, many of whom have performed far below average, may see the ADC as a new vehicle to hide their inadequacies and secure re-election.

However, Nigerians are unlikely to repeat the 2023 mistake, having witnessed the consequences of such voting patterns. Lazy legislators from Anambra and the Southeast should be warned: attempting to ride the ADC’s coattails without a record of performance will likely lead to humiliation at the polls, as voters demand accountability and competence. A specific case worth noting is the upcoming Anambra South Senatorial District by-election, where a heavy-spending aspirant is reportedly considering moving to the ADC after facing challenges securing the APGA ticket. This aspirant, a prominent businessman, lacks a robust political structure in the senatorial district.

The ADC, with no visible grassroots presence in Anambra South, offers little advantage for such a candidate and moving to the party in hopes of leveraging the coalition’s momentum is a risky and likely wasteful endeavour. The aspirant would be better served by saving his resources and waiting for a more favourable political season, perhaps in 2027 or beyond, when he can build a stronger base within a party with established structures. He should also note that throwing money at a party with no visible framework in the district is a recipe for electoral failure.

It is important to note that the involvement of respected figures like former Senate President David Mark and former FCT Minister and Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai adds credibility to the ADC coalition, but their presence alone is insufficient to dislodge Tinubu and the APC. Mark, a seasoned politician with a strong base in Benue State, and El-Rufai, a key architect of the APC’s 2015 victory, bring strategic insight and political gravitas. However, their influence is limited without a broader coalition of parties, governors, and legislators.

Tinubu’s political machine, built over decades, includes loyalists across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones, significant financial resources, and control of key institutions. To challenge this, the ADC coalition must focus on building a long-term strategy rather than aiming for an immediate presidential upset in 2027. Instead of fixating on the presidency, the coalition should prioritise capturing state governorships and National Assembly seats in 2027 to build political strength for future contests, particularly in 2031.

Controlling states and constituencies would provide the ADC with the infrastructure and credibility needed to mount a serious challenge to the APC. For example, targeting states like Plateau, Benue, and Taraba, where the APC’s grip is weakening, could yield governorships and legislative seats, creating a foundation for a stronger presidential bid in 2031. This approach mirrors the APC’s strategy post-2011, when it consolidated power in key states before launching a successful presidential campaign in 2015. By focusing on state-level victories, the ADC can build a grassroots movement, attract defectors from the APC and PDP, and establish itself as a viable alternative. The coalition must also avoid becoming a haven for lazy politicians and focus on building a robust political structure.

Chukwuemerie Uduchukwu writes from Abuja. He can be contacted via [email protected]

Views expressed by contributors are strictly personal and not of TheCable.