It is a common sight to behold passers-by going to peep at a mob or drawn by the dancing and drumming of advertisers trying to push their products into the market space. In Nigeria, politicians seem to imitate those market hordes as they gallivant from one political platform to another. When it is not searching for an opportunity to vent political ambition, it usually is about serving the interests of paymasters or godfathers for consideration. Today, the shifting sands of Nigeria’s political parties exist, where the union has never proved to reflect either unity or an agenda for better governance, SEYE OLUMIDE (Lagos), LEO SOBECHI, ADAMU ABUH, TERHEMBA DAKA, JOHN AKUBO (Abuja), NAJIB SANI (Gombe) report.

More than 26 years of the current Fourth Republic, Nigeria’s political parties have continued to be in a state of flux, which has various platforms producing leaders with divergent interests and outlooks on governance.

Out of the three political parties that heralded Nigeria’s return to the path of presidential democracy, only one, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), retains its name, but with the structure badly battered by a crisis of confidence and conflation of ambitions.

The other two, the All Peoples Party (APP) and Alliance for Democracy (AD), went through several transmutations only to end up in a merger with other fringe opposition platforms that mushroomed in the course of the country’s unbroken democratic transitions to form the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Last Wednesday, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) became the latest conglomeration of political actors, instead of an amalgamation of parties into one umbrella, preparatory to the next general elections in 2027.

However, barely 24 hours after a new leadership was unveiled in Abuja for the aged, but struggling ADC, discordant voices have begun to peal, exposing the unstated intentions and aspirations of some of the promoters.

For instance, unlike the ruling APC, which at its inchoate stage spelt out its mission and presumptive standard bearer, ADC has exposed a possible clash in the presidential aspiration of some of the major promoters.

But the ADC promoters said they are banking on the perceived poor performance of the incumbent administration, stressing that Nigerians, ravaged by hunger, will join hands to defeat whatever advantage the federal might could muster.

Amid the suspense over whether the Fourth Republic Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, would forego his ambition for his 2019 running mate and 2023 Presidential runner, Mr Peter Obi, certain tendencies, mainly from the APC bloc, are surreptitiously working for the first runner-up in the APC presidential primary, Mr Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi.

A special purpose vehicle to the rescue
Although the coalition partners had tried to register a new political party, the majority felt that the time was too short to regularise and market the new party before the 2027 polls.

Consequently, ADC became a ready and willing vessel to ferry the political journeymen to the 2027 electoral contest, even as Nigerians accuse the new movement of a gang-up to grab political power.

Yet, within the ruling APC, whose incumbent President, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has shown a readiness to seek re-election, internal contestations over the leadership of the party, as well as formulating a winning strategy, have become its headache.

While the ruling party has scheduled a National Electoral Committee (NEC) meeting for July 24, 2025, to tinker with the political arithmetic of zoning and configuration of the anticipated Presidential ticket, the refurbished ADC is currently studying the proposition from one of the presidential aspirants – Obi – to run and serve a single term in office.

But, in the wake of Obi’s argument that the power rotation principle between Northern and Southern Nigeria favours a Southern candidate to emerge as ADC’s presidential standard bearer, another ADC apologist, Amaechi’s supporters from the North are working behind the scenes for his possible emergence as a credible alternative.

Against the background of the intriguing scheming, some disgruntled members of the ADC are raising a red flag against the takeover of their party in an undemocratic fashion, alleging pending litigations against the party’s leaders.

A prominent member of the ADC coalition, Nasir el-Rufai, disclosed that the plan to float an alternative platform is still on course. The former Kaduna State governor said the coalition of opposition parties is considering a new party as a backup for the ADC.

He told his interviewers on Radio France International (RFI) Hausa service on Wednesday night that the coalition would consider registering a new party as an alternative option to counter potential infiltration by agents of the ruling APC into the ADC to cause a crisis.

He lamented that the APC-led federal government is employing tactics to undermine opposition parties, including luring members with promises of appointments, money, or automatic tickets in 2027.

“Those who refuse to join the APC face threats of investigations by agencies like the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC), or Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB)”, he alleged.

The former governor also recalled how the APC government allegedly sponsored crises in opposition parties, including the PDP, Labour Party (LP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which he said was intended to weaken the opposition.

But the 2023 presidential candidate of ADC, Mr Dumebi Kachikwu, accused Northern politicians loyal to Atiku Abubakar of supporting the takeover ostensibly to alter the power rotation arrangement to throw up an Atiku candidacy.

Denying allegations of being sponsored by the Tinubu-led APC, Kachikwu, however, acknowledged that members of the coalition approached him to join them, but said, “I will never join forces with those bent on denying the Southern part of the country the opportunity to administer the country for two terms in office based on the rotation of power principle.”

He insisted that the alleged stance by the masterminds of the coalition to alter the power rotation principle is as good as reminding him that he cannot exercise the right to aspire for the presidency in the 2027 poll, for the simple fact that he hails from the Southern part of the country.

While pledging to stop his antagonistic stance against the takeover of the ADC if he is assured that the party would zone the presidency to the South in 2027, Kachikwu contended that Chief Ralph Okey Nwosu lacks the authority to hand over the party to David Mark.

Kachikwu also hinted that he would approach the court to correct the alleged anomaly of handing the ADC to the Atiku-led coalition, even as he called on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to do the needful by ensuring the emergence of a credible leadership for the party.

But, washing the Presidency’s hands off the disputations in ADC, the Presidency dismissed the opposition coalition under the ADC as a hollow alliance of disgruntled politicians, warning that the group poses a threat to Nigeria’s democratic progress and stability.

Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, in a post on his X (formerly Twitter) handle, asserted that most of the figures now aligning with the ADC had long distanced themselves from the All Progressives Congress (APC), some even before the 2023 general elections.

“Rotimi Amaechi’s soul left the APC in 2022 after he lost the presidential primary to President Tinubu. Abubakar Malami, the former Attorney-General, has also not hidden his detachment from the APC since the President emerged, especially after his failed bid to govern Kebbi State,” Onanuga noted.

However, exuding much optimism, former LP presidential candidate Peter Obi hailed the adoption of the ADC by the opposition coalition as a transformative moment for the country’s future.

“This decision was not made lightly. It flows from deep reflection on where we are as a nation and what must be done to truly move forward…We are committed to working together to ensure Nigeria gets a leadership that is competent, capable, and compassionate,” he said.

However, in a tone that belied the quiet contestation for power with the new ADC bloc, Obi’s running mate in the 2023 poll, Senator Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, dropped a cryptic remark.

He wrote: “I don’t yet see anyone in this coalition who can scheme and plan over 16 years. With all due respect to Atiku, he has contested consistently—this will be the seventh time. But tell me: is there anyone else in the coalition who will say, ‘Let it be the other person’, and I will support them? I’m yet to see that. Everyone seems only interested in their own candidacy.

But what did Tinubu do? He invested in Buhari, unreliable as Buhari was. He backed him—and after Buhari, he took over. He stayed committed for 16 years and took it in 2023.

“Tinubu gave Atiku the ACN in 2007. Gave it to Ribadu in 2011. Backed Buhari in 2015. And waited until 2023 to take it himself. I’m saying: to defeat this phenomenon called Tinubu, you must do the unthinkable.

“If this coalition—which I recognise—thinks it’s business as usual, it won’t work. It has to be less about individual ambition and more about Nigeria. More action, less talk. Because talk is cheap.”

A traditional ruler of Daffo in Bokkos Local Government Area of Plateau State, Da Jonathan Sunday Akuns, said “coalition is a normal practice of party redevelopment because our political parties, our political environment, is still very green.

“We are still getting closer to having virtual and stable political parties.
Imagine the ANC in South Africa, it’s over 100 years old, and see the performance over time. Similar parties in Europe and America, the same thing. So, we are just taking off.

“But the only issue I have is the philosophy that has brought them together. The philosophy that has brought them together is one of vengeance and grievance with the ruling party or with the existing parties. It’s simply one of grievance and nothing more.”

The ongoing coalition of disgruntled politicians regrouping under the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to unseat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 general election may seem ambitious, if not outright difficult, but not entirely impossible.

Despite the fanfare surrounding the realignment efforts, political observers argue the coalition may hit the rocks, given the incumbent president’s political strength, the dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) across several states, and its overwhelming majority in the National Assembly.

Critics further note that the ADC coalition may struggle to maintain internal cohesion, unlike the 2015 APC merger, where all principal stakeholders buried their ambitions behind the candidacy of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who at the time symbolised both the northern political interest and an image of incorruptibility.

In contrast, the ongoing ADC coalition is already battling issues of political alignment, clashing regional loyalties, and conflicting ambitions, dynamics that were mostly absent during the APC’s 2015 consolidation.

Notably, the APC merger of 2015 was anchored on a strong campaign message, branding former President Goodluck Jonathan’s government as deeply corrupt and ineffective, especially on security. The kidnapping of the Chibok girls served as a central theme that galvanised public sentiment against the PDP administration.

Today, the ADC coalition lacks a unifying narrative or persuasive message capable of capturing the electorate’s imagination or convincing Nigerians to abandon the Tinubu-led administration.

In 2015, key states like Lagos, Rivers, Kano, and Kaduna were already under the APC’s control. The present ADC coalition, however, commands no such leverage, a reality that may prove costly in the coming elections.

Moreover, critics argue that the actors currently driving the ADC realignment lack a coherent political strategy capable of unsettling the APC ahead of 2027. The coalition appears more like a reactionary front against the dominance of both the APC and PDP, rather than a values-driven alternative.

A clash of ideologies or alliance of mutual objectives?
With members drawn from ideologically disparate backgrounds, some former progressives, others conservative establishment figures, the coalition risks becoming a cauldron of conflicting interests and policy contradictions.

Analysts say the ADC’s success will depend on how major stakeholders such as Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi, Rotimi Amaechi, and others manage their individual ambitions. Already, Obi has reaffirmed his interest in the 2027 presidency, stating during a recent X Space appearance that any southerner elected president should only serve one term before returning power to the North.

He added that he would willingly serve for a single term, or even two years, if necessary. However, he also ruled out the possibility of running on a joint ticket with Atiku, should such an arrangement arise. If Obi sticks to this position, it could put him at odds with Atiku, whose sole political objective remains clinching the presidential ticket, on any viable platform.

Some analysts told The Guardian that this divergence might eventually lead to a parting of ways between Obi and Atiku by the time the coalition settles its internal conventions and presidential primaries.

Several figures in the coalition are political heavyweights with aspirations for the presidency, governorships, or legislative positions. Without a robust internal mechanism for power-sharing, zoning, and dispute resolution, individual ambitions could easily derail collective objectives. For instance, if influential players like Rauf Aregbesola or any northern heavyweight push for the 2027 presidential ticket without a broad-based consensus, the coalition may splinter prematurely.

A PDP chieftain, Eddy Olafeso, said he was unbothered by the coalition’s momentum, arguing that it lacks sufficient grassroots structures. While the ADC has operated as a registered party for years, its reach remains weak in many states, especially at the ward and local government levels. Compared to the APC and PDP, which have deep-rooted national networks and financial infrastructure, the ADC may struggle to mobilise voters, particularly in rural areas.

In 2015, states like Lagos, Rivers, Kano, and Oyo not only offered electoral support but also funded the APC massively. Financial heavyweights such as Tinubu and others formed the economic backbone of the party, a dynamic currently absent in the ADC.

Forming a national coalition is one thing; financing it is another. Most successful coalitions in Nigeria’s political history, such as the APC merger in 2013, were backed by wealthy financiers and sitting governors. Unless ADC’s new leadership secures reliable and transparent funding from committed sources, the coalition may falter when it matters most: during campaigns, logistics, and media visibility.

Will Atiku and co. be ready to stake their enormous resources to back another candidate to contest the presidency, or will the northern elite be ready to bankroll a Southern candidate in 2027?

The ADC coalition presently has no sitting governor and lacks significant representation in the National Assembly. Without access to state structures, federal leverage, or consistent media power, the coalition risks being dismissed as a fringe elite club with little electoral significance. In Nigeria’s political environment, realignments without incumbency advantage often struggle to gain traction.

As former PDP Deputy National Chairman, Bode George, put it: “Beyond the APC and PDP, multiple parties are jostling for the attention of opposition-minded Nigerians, Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP). Unless these parties consolidate under a united front, the anti-APC vote may once again be splintered, giving the ruling party a clear path to victory in 2027. The ADC coalition could get lost in this crowded opposition field.”

Hurdles before the coalition
However, one of the biggest hurdles facing the coalition remains the North-South power struggle. Unlike in 2015, when there was a national sentiment in favour of power returning to the North after Jonathan completed Yar’Adua’s term, today’s political atmosphere is different.

Back then, the entire Southwest strongly backed Buhari, while the North voted overwhelmingly for him. Only the Southeast and South-South regions resisted. But in the present context, many southern voices insist that the region must complete its eight years in power, leaving no room for a northern presidential bid in 2027.

This regional agitation already poses a major challenge. There are growing concerns over whether northern political elites will trust or support a coalition perceived to be dominated by southern leaders, especially with figures like Aregbesola at the forefront.

Ultimately, the success or failure of the ADC coalition will depend on how it balances regional interests, manages internal power struggles, crafts a convincing national message, and sustains a truly inclusive, well-financed campaign structure. Without these elements, the coalition may struggle to pose a serious challenge to the APC in 2027.

Beyond lacking influential figures like incumbent President Bola Tinubu, whose political tentacles stretch nationwide, or former President Muhammadu Buhari, who commanded a consistent 12 million-vote bloc across Northern Nigeria, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) coalition also faces a race against time in its bid to harmonise internal interests ahead of the 2027 general election.

A key element that set the then-opposition APC apart in the build-up to the 2015 polls was Buhari. Across three electoral cycles—2003, 2007, and 2011—he polled over 12 million votes under relatively weak party platforms (ANPP and CPC), relying largely on organic support from Northern voters without significant elite endorsement.

By the time APC was formed in 2013, Buhari’s unshakable support base became the bedrock of its success. That foundation, combined with elite collaboration across regions, paved the way for APC’s historic 2015 victory and subsequent hold on power through the 2019 and 2023 elections. Today, ADC lacks any such nationally admired and politically magnetic figure capable of rallying grassroots support ahead of elite alignment.

In contrast, Buhari polled: 2003 (ANPP): 12.7 million votes, 2007 (ANPP): 12.2 million votes, 2011 (CPC): 12.2 million votes. Though these numbers fell short of victory at the time, they gave APC a sturdy base once matched with broader coalitional strength.

Unless ADC presents a credible, charismatic, and nationally appealing presidential candidate, someone capable of organically commanding millions of votes irrespective of party structure—it may be unrealistic to expect a repeat of the APC’s 2015 breakthrough. The absence of such a figure remains the coalition’s most glaring vulnerability.

Despite these challenges, some analysts caution against dismissing the ADC coalition entirely. Political strategist, Fouad Oki, argues that the ruling APC itself would be visibly unbothered if the coalition posed no real threat.

According to Oki, more political actors may still align with ADC, especially if economic hardship under the current administration worsens. He also challenged assumptions about Tinubu’s hold on the Southwest.

“In Oyo and Osun, APC is far from dominant. Governor Ademola Adeleke could defect to ADC in a worst-case scenario, while the APC structure in Oyo remains weak against Governor Seyi Makinde,” he said.

Oki further suggested that sidelined APC stalwarts such as former governors Ibikunle Amosun and Kayode Fayemi may consider aligning with ADC to retain political relevance. “If Peter Obi clinches the ADC ticket, he could sweep the Southeast and South-South, while large parts of the North, dissatisfied with Tinubu’s policies, might shift their loyalty elsewhere.”

While the path to 2027 is steep, evolving economic and political dynamics could still reposition ADC as a viable alternative if it acts decisively and crafts a nationally resonant platform with strong leadership.